Commodity market report
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22 Pages

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Russian Federation - H1 2015

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Russian Federation - H1 2015

Report summary

Russia is the world's largest pipe gas exporter and Gazprom is its only licensed exporter of pipe gas. While Russia will remain Europe's largest pipe importer through the forecast period, political relations with Europe have deteriorated and Russia's focus is now firmly on initiating and growing pipe exports to China.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Russian Federation - H1 2015 PDF - 2.48 MB 22 Pages, 8 Tables, 14 Figures
  • Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Russian Federation - H1 2015.xls XLS - 369.00 KB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Russia West
      • Gazprom's Russian production potential underpinned by giant legacy fields and new Yamal Peninsula developments
      • Independent producers have reduced Gazprom's share of the domestic market
    • Russia East
      • Gas sales agreement with China will drive significant new upstream developments in East Siberia
    • Production Target
  • Costs
    • Russian rouble devaluation has lowered cost of delivery to Europe and China
  • Demand
  • Infrastructure
    • Pipe
      • Exports
      • Imports
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Export Potential
  • Contracts
    • FSU
      • Uncertainty over Ukraine deliveries reduces Russia’s contracted exports to the FSU
    • Europe
      • Contracts with European buyers have evolved, lower ToP levels, more spot price indexation
    • Asia Pacific
      • Power of Siberia provides further opportunity for increasing contractual exposure to China, Altai talks are progressing
      • CNPC will bring Yamal LNG into China, but marketing of pre-FID LNG has stalled
    • Central Asia Imports
  • Trade
    • Strategy
    • Market access
      • Pipe and storage
      • LNG
      • Recent Trends
        • European exports back to pre-crisis levels in 2013, 2014 exports to Europe set to fall by 5% year on year
        • Outlook
          • Medium term
            • Russia exports to Europe increase as indigenous supply falls and LNG stays in the Pacific, but pricing flexibility is key
          • Long term
            • Flexible Russian supply balances the European market in the long-term, pipe exports to Asia are engine of growth
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 22 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure - Western Russia
    • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure - Eastern Russia
  • Supply
    • Russia West production potential*
    • Russia East production potential*
  • Costs
    • Real rouble exchange rate forecast vs. oil price
    • Gazprom delivered cost curve into Europe - 2025
    • Costs: Table 1
  • Demand
    • Domestic demand by sector
  • Infrastructure
    • Export capacity
    • Existing Export Pipelines
    • Export Pipelines Under Construction
    • Pre FID Pipelines
    • Existing LNG Projects
    • LNG Projects Under Construction
    • Pre FID LNG Projects
    • Import Pipelines
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Available export volumes vs available export capacity
  • Contracts
    • Contracted exports vs export potential
  • Trade
    • Total pipe imports into Europe by destination
    • Pipe imports into Europe
    • Export outlook v export potential
    • Export supply mix
  • Risks and uncertainties
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