Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Russian Federation -  H1 2016

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10 August 2016

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Russian Federation -  H1 2016

Report summary

Russia is the world's largest pipe gas exporter and Gazprom is its only licensed exporter of pipe gas. Russia's optimum strategy in the face of new competition from US LNG is to compete for market share and maintain exports to Europe at around 160 bcm.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Russia West
      • Gazprom's production potential underpinned by giant legacy fields and new Yamal Peninsula developments
      • Independent producers have reduced Gazprom's share of the domestic market
    • Russia East
      • Gas sales agreement with China will drive significant new upstream developments in East Siberia
    • Production target
    • Russia competitive versus US LNG
  • Demand
    • Pipe
      • Exports
        • Existing Export Pipelines
      • Imports
    • Export Potential
    • FSU
      • Uncertainty over Ukraine deliveries reduces Russia’s contracted exports to the FSU
    • Europe
      • Contracts with European buyers have evolved, lower ToP levels, more spot price indexation
    • Asia Pacific
      • Power of Siberia provides further opportunity for increasing contractual exposure to China, Altai talks have stalled
      • CNPC will bring Yamal LNG into China, but marketing of pre-FID LNG has stalled
    • Strategy
    • Market access
      • Pipe and storage
      • LNG
      • Recent Trends
        • European exports at record level in 2015
        • Outlook
          • Medium term
            • Russia exports to Europe maintained at current level as Russia pursues market share
          • Long term
            • Flexible Russian supply balances the European market in the long-term, pipe exports to Asia are engine of growth
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 20 images and tables including:

  • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure - Western Russia
  • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure - Eastern Russia
  • Domestic demand by sector
  • Export capacity
  • Contracted exports vs export potential
  • Russia West production potential*
  • Russia East production potential*
  • Costs: Image 1
  • Available export volumes vs available export capacity
  • Import Pipelines
  • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • Export Pipelines Under Construction
  • Pre FID Pipelines
  • Existing LNG Projects
  • LNG Projects Under Construction
  • Pre FID LNG Projects
  • Total pipe imports into Europe by destination
  • Pipe imports into Europe
  • Export outlook v export potential
  • Export supply mix

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - Russia - H1 2016.xls

    XLS 504.00 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Russian Federation - H1 2016

    PDF 2.31 MB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Russian Federation - H1 2016

    ZIP 2.41 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 1.99 MB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 116.96 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 58.51 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 84.40 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 148.08 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 98.90 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 114.05 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 122.46 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 57.15 KB

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