Global gas markets long-term supply outlook – West Africa – H2 2015
West Africa is an established LNG supply region. There is 30.8 mmtpa of existing LNG export capacity however, reliability of exports has been poor. Nigeria leads the region, contributing 22 mmtpa of LNG capacity whilst Equatorial Guinea LNG operates at a steady 3.4 mmtpa. Angola LNG is expected to come back online in 2016 after several serious technical issues. GoFLNG in Cameroon took FID in September 2015 and we expect Fortuna FLNG in Equatorial Guinea to reach FID by H2 2016. FLNG is a potential game-changer for the region. There are many factors which work to its favour, not least of which is the difficulty conventional LNG projects are having progressing near term. Later in the forecast however, we do expect increasing LNG capacity from conventional projects. This update, our forecast for West African LNG production is 8% higher in 2035 than our H1 view.