Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - West Africa - H2 2016

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27 January 2017

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - West Africa - H2 2016

Report summary

West Africa remains an established gas supply region, producing around 49 bcm. Nigeria accounts for over 80% of those volumes. The lack of adequate infrastructure and low indigenous demand means the majority is exported. However, the reliability of exports continues to be affected by risks across the region. In Nigeria, the combination of militancy and NNPCs upstream JV under-funding continue to pose risks to supply. Also, militancy and sabotage has affected supply to the LNG plant, putting output at risk. In Angola, output from the LNG plant remains volatile. FLNG is continuing to gain momentum across the region. GoFLNG in Cameroon became the first project of its type to be sanctioned in the region after FID was taken in 2015 and other projects could follow. Longer term, the lack of investment and project progress in greenfield onshore projects across the region will lead to delays. As such, we don’t expect volumes from any greenfield onshore LNG projects online until after 2030.

Table of contents

    • Key issues
      • Nigeria's variable upstream supply
      • FLNG potential
      • Angola LNG uncertainty
      • Greenfield LNG project delays
    • What to Watch
      • Short term
      • Medium term
      • Long term

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