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83 Pages

Indonesia gas and LNG: 2016 long-term regional outlook


Indonesia gas and LNG: 2016 long-term regional outlook

Report summary

Regulatory changes continue to influence Indonesia's gas market landscape this year. A merger between PERTAMINA and PGN looks imminent, and seems to be an initial step toward the formation of a national energy holding company. The government released a new presidential regulation to limit piped gas prices for selective industrial buyers. Abadi LNG is likely to be delayed further as the government rejected INPEX's proposed FLNG development concept, preferring a land-based terminal instead. No significant increase is expected in the gas and LNG production over the medium term, amid the decline in existing supply, project delays and limited new discoveries. The midstream and downstream sectors look more buoyant, as gas pipeline infrastructure is expanded, more regas terminals are built and new gas-fired power plants are commissioned. This will result in a strong gas and LNG demand growth, although competition from other fuels particularly coal will also come into play.

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • Indonesia gas and LNG: 2016 long-term regional outlook PDF - 4.28 MB 83 Pages, 32 Tables, 74 Figures
  • Indonesia Gas Data.xls XLS - 1.72 MB
  • Indonesia LNG Data.xls XLS - 891.00 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Market overview
    • Recent policy and regulatory changes
      • PERTAMINA - PGN merger
      • Piped gas price reduction for industrial buyers
    • Indonesia's upstream gas production remains flat
    • Robust gas demand in the short and long terms
    • Impact of coal projects will be felt in 2021 - 2024
    • Potential demand upside from new smelters, refineries and small-scale LNG projects
    • Changes in LNG supply for gas-fired IPP projects
    • Indonesia's LNG market looks relatively balanced through to 2030
    • Data summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key stakeholders
      • Key offices
    • Indonesia gas market value chain
    • Energy policy
      • Oil and gas law revisions
      • Competition
      • Fuel mix
      • Pricing
    • Gas market regulation
      • Upstream
        • PSC licence extensions
        • Domestic market obligation
        • Indonesian participation
        • Unconventional resources
      • Midstream and downstream
        • Transmission
        • Distribution and retail
        • Gas aggregator scheme
        • New reference gas price for industries
  • Key companies
    • Upstream
    • Midstream/downstream
      • PERTAMINA
      • PGN
      • PLN
  • Supply
    • Supply from Java
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
      • Supply from Sumatra
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
    • Supply from Kalimantan
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
    • Supply from the rest of Indonesia
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
    • Unconventional gas
      • Coal bed methane (CBM)
      • Shale gas
    • Appendix
  • Infrastructure
    • Gas pipeline infrastructure: existing
    • Gas pipeline infrastructure: under development and proposed
      • Additional West Java infrastructure
        • Cilegon-Serpong
        • West Java Ring Lines 1-3
        • Muara Tawar-Tegal Gede and Cirebon-KHT
      • Additional Central/East Java infrastructure
      • East to West Java pipeline
      • Duri - Medan pipeline
      • Kalimantan to Java pipeline
    • LNG infrastructure
    • Appendix
  • Demand
    • Power generation
    • Non power
      • Gas aggregators
      • Ammonia/urea
      • Petrochemicals
      • Enhanced oil recovery
      • Refineries
      • Transport
      • Steel and smelters
      • West Java gas demand
      • Central and East Java gas demand
    • Central and South Sumatra gas demand
    • North Sumatra (Medan and Aceh) gas demand
    • Batam gas demand
    • Kalimantan gas demand
    • Sulawesi gas demand
    • Papua gas demand
  • Supply-demand balances
    • West Java gas balance
      • West Java gas market balance
      • Central and East Java gas balance
      • Central and East Java gas market balance
      • Central and South Sumatra gas balance
      • Central and South Sumatra gas market balance
      • North Sumatra (Medan and Aceh) gas balance
      • North Sumatra gas market balance
    • Batam gas balance
      • Batam gas market balance
      • Kalimantan gas balance
      • Kalimantan gas market balance
    • Sulawesi gas balance
      • Sulawesi gas balance
    • Papua gas balance
      • Papua gas market balance
      • Timor gas balance
  • LNG
    • LNG supply
      • Domestic volumes
        • Bontang LNG
        • Tangguh LNG
        • Donggi Senoro LNG
        • Sengkang LNG
        • Abadi LNG
        • LNG demand
          • Historical consumption
            • Historical LNG imports
          • Demand seasonality
          • Future outlook
            • Indonesia LNG demand outlook
            • West Java
            • South Sumatra
            • East Java and Bali
            • North Sumatra
            • Rest of Indonesia
            • LNG supply-demand balance
            • LNG prices
              • Domestic volumes
              • International volumes
                • LNG contract prices*
                • LNG regas infrastructure
                  • Existing projects
                  • Proposed and under development projects
                  • Speculative projects
                • Appendix
  • Prices
    • Current pricing trends
      • Piped gas prices
        • Historical upward trend
        • Recent price reduction
      • LNG contract prices
    • Gas price forecast
    • Key gas contract prices

In this report there are 106 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Indonesia gas demand by sector
    • Indonesia gas demand by region
    • Indonesia gas market balance
    • Key changes to analysis from H2 2015 publication
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP forecast - Indonesia
    • Economic Indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Indonesia gas market value chain
    • Major energy legislation
  • Key companies
    • Indonesia gas reserves: top 20 reserve holders*
    • PERTAMINA's business lines (2015)
    • PERTAMINA's gas production and distribution
    • PGN's business lines (2015)
    • PGN's gas production and distribution
    • PLN's customer segments (2014)
    • PLN's power sales and gas consumption
  • Supply
    • Total potential gas supply available: Indonesia
    • Potential gas supply available: Java*
    • West Java gas pipelines and fields
    • East Java gas pipelines and fields
    • Potential gas supply available: Sumatra and Natuna Sea*
    • Central Sumatra gas pipelines and fields
    • South Sumatra gas pipelines and fields
    • North Sumatra/Aceh gas pipelines and fields
    • Potential gas supply available: Kalimantan
    • Potential gas supply available: rest of Indonesia*
  • Infrastructure
    • Java-Bali gas pipelines and fields
    • Sumatra gas pipelines and fields
  • Demand
    • Gas demand by sector
    • West Java total gas demand
    • West Java power sector gas users
    • West Java industry sector gas users
    • West Java gas demand
    • Central Java total gas demand
    • East Java total gas demand
    • Central and East Java power sector gas users
    • Central and East Java industry sector gas users
    • Central and East Java gas demand
    • Central Sumatra total gas demand
    • South Sumatra total gas demand
    • Central and South Sumatra power sector gas users
    • Central and South Sumatra industry sector gas users
    • Central and South Sumatra gas demand
    • Medan total gas demand
    • Aceh total gas demand
    • North Sumatra power sector gas users
    • North Sumatra industry sector gas users
    • North Sumatra gas demand
    • Batam total gas demand
    • Batam power sector gas users
    • Batam industry sector gas users
    • Batam gas demand
    • Kalimantan total gas demand
    • Kalimantan power sector gas users
    • Kalimantan industry sector gas users
    • Kalimantan gas demand
    • Sulawesi total gas demand
    • Sulawesi power sector gas users
    • Sulawesi industry sector gas users
    • Sulawesi gas demand
    • Papua total gas demand
    • Papua power sector gas users
    • Papua industry sector gas users
    • Papua gas demand
  • Supply-demand balances
    • West Java supply demand gap
    • West Java gas balance
    • West Java pipeline utilisation (SSWJ*)
    • Central and East Java supply demand gap
    • Central and East Java gas balance
    • Central and East Java pipeline utilisation
    • Central and South Sumatra supply demand gap
    • Central and South Sumatra gas balance
    • Central and South Sumatra pipeline utilisation
    • North Sumatra supply demand gap*
    • North Sumatra gas balance
    • Batam supply demand gap
    • Batam gas balance
    • Batam pipeline utilisation
    • Kalimantan supply demand gap
    • Kalimantan gas balance
    • Sulawesi supply demand gap
    • Sulawesi balance
    • Papua supply demand gap
    • Papua gas balance
  • LNG
    • Indonesia LNG production outlook*
    • Bontang LNG production outlook*
    • Tangguh LNG production outlook*
    • DSLNG LNG production outlook*
    • Sengkang LNG production outlook*
    • Abadi LNG production outlook*
    • LNG: Image 7
    • Monthly seasonality
    • LNG: Image 9
    • West Java LNG demand*
    • South Sumatra (Lampung) LNG demand*
    • East Java LNG demand
    • Bali LNG demand*
    • North Sumatra LNG demand*
    • LNG: Image 15
    • LNG: Image 16
  • Prices
    • Annual gas prices
    • Gas price outlook to power (Java)
    • Power gas prices (2016)
    • Industry gas prices (2016)
    • Fertiliser gas prices (2016)
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