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Indonesia gas and LNG: 2017 long-term regional outlook

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21 June 2017

Indonesia gas and LNG: 2017 long-term regional outlook

Report summary

Indonesia's gas market will continue to expand to support the growing economy. The country's gas demand is expected to increase by another 1,600 mmcfd from 2017, reaching 5,100 mmcfd in 2035. As the piped gas production declines, LNG share will grow strongly. By 2035, we expect around 64% of the country's gas demand to be met by LNG. The growing share of LNG offers new opportunities both in the LNG procurement and regas infrastructure projects. More LNG contracts were signed in 2017, and the government has started allowing direct LNG imports for PLN/IPPs albeit in a very controlled approach, as it seeks to balance the need for addressing concerns from consumers, in terms of supply availability and price competitiveness, and protecting domestic LNG production.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Market background
    • Gas price cap for industries
    • The government now allows LNG imports for PLN/IPPs
    • Declining gas and LNG production in the short to medium term
    • Gas demand to grow by 2% annually through to 2035
    • Increasing reliance on LNG to balance market, with more LNG contracts signed
    • Data summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Key stakeholders
      • Key offices
    • Indonesia gas market value chain
    • Energy policy
      • Oil and gas law revisions
      • Competition
      • Fuel mix
      • Pricing
    • Gas market regulation
      • Upstream
        • Gross split PSC terms
        • PSC licence extensions
        • Domestic market obligation
        • Indonesian participation
        • Unconventional resources
      • Midstream and downstream
        • Transmission
        • Distribution and retail
        • Gas aggregator scheme
        • New reference gas prices for industries
        • New reference gas prices for power generation
    • Upstream
    • Midstream and downstream
      • PERTAMINA
      • PGN
      • PLN
    • Supply from Java
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
      • Supply from Sumatra
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
    • Supply from Kalimantan
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
    • Supply from the rest of Indonesia
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
    • Unconventional gas
      • Coal bed methane (CBM)
      • Shale gas
    • Appendix
    • Gas pipeline infrastructure: existing
    • Gas pipeline infrastructure: under development and proposed
      • Additional West Java infrastructure
        • Cilegon-Serpong
        • West Java Ring Lines 1-3
        • Muara Tawar-Tegal Gede and Cirebon-KHT
      • Additional Central/East Java infrastructure
      • East to West Java pipeline
      • Duri-Medan pipeline
      • Grissik-Palembang pipeline
      • Kalimantan to Java pipeline
    • LNG infrastructure
    • Appendix
    • Power generation
    • Non power
      • Gas aggregators
      • Ammonia/urea
      • Petrochemicals
      • Enhanced oil recovery
      • Refineries
      • Transport
      • Steel and smelters
      • West Java gas demand
      • Central and East Java gas demand
    • Central and South Sumatra gas demand
    • North Sumatra (Medan and Aceh) gas demand
    • Batam gas demand
    • Kalimantan gas demand
    • Sulawesi gas demand
    • Papua gas demand
    • West Java gas balance
      • West Java gas market balance
      • Central and East Java gas balance
      • Central and East Java gas market balance
      • Central and South Sumatra gas balance
      • Central and South Sumatra gas market balance
      • North Sumatra (Medan and Aceh) gas balance
      • North Sumatra gas market balance
    • Batam gas balance
      • Batam gas market balance
      • Kalimantan gas balance
      • Kalimantan gas market balance
    • Sulawesi gas balance
      • Sulawesi gas balance
    • Papua gas balance
      • Papua gas market balance
      • Timor gas balance
    • LNG supply
      • Domestic volumes
        • Bontang LNG
        • Tangguh LNG
        • Donggi Senoro LNG
        • Sengkang LNG
        • Abadi LNG
        • LNG demand
          • Historical consumption
            • Historical LNG imports
          • Demand seasonality
          • Future outlook
            • Indonesia LNG demand outlook
            • West Java
            • South Sumatra
            • East Java and Bali
            • North Sumatra
            • Rest of Indonesia
            • LNG supply-demand balance
            • LNG prices
              • Domestic volumes
              • International volumes
                • LNG contract prices*
                • LNG regas infrastructure
                  • Existing projects
                  • Proposed and under development projects
                  • Speculative projects
                • Appendix
    • Current pricing trends
      • Piped gas prices
        • Historical price trend
        • Recent price cap for industries
        • New price regulation for power
      • LNG contract prices
    • Gas price forecast
    • Key gas contract prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 106 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • GDP forecast - Indonesia
  • Economic indicators
  • Total potential gas supply available: Indonesia
  • Gas demand by sector
  • Indonesia gas demand by sector
  • Indonesia gas demand by region
  • Indonesia gas market balance
  • Key changes to analysis from H2 2016 publication
  • Indonesia gas market value chain
  • Indonesia gas reserves: top 20 reserve holders*
  • Potential gas supply available: Java*
  • Potential gas supply available: Kalimantan
  • Potential gas supply available: rest of Indonesia*
  • Java-Bali gas pipelines and fields
  • Central Sumatra total gas demand
  • South Sumatra total gas demand
  • Central and South Sumatra power sector gas users
  • Central and South Sumatra industry sector gas users
  • Central and South Sumatra gas demand
  • Medan total gas demand
  • Aceh total gas demand
  • North Sumatra power sector gas users
  • North Sumatra industry sector gas users
  • North Sumatra gas demand
  • Batam total gas demand
  • Batam power sector gas users
  • Batam industry sector gas users
  • Batam gas demand
  • Kalimantan total gas demand
  • Kalimantan power sector gas users
  • Kalimantan industry sector gas users
  • Kalimantan gas demand
  • Sulawesi total gas demand
  • Sulawesi power sector gas users
  • Sulawesi industry sector gas users
  • Sulawesi gas demand
  • Papua total gas demand
  • Papua power sector gas users
  • Demand: Table 23
  • Papua gas demand
  • West Java supply demand gap
  • West Java gas balance
  • West Java pipeline utilisation (SSWJ*)
  • Batam supply demand gap
  • Batam gas balance
  • The Grissik-Singapore pipeline utilisation
  • Sulawesi supply demand gap
  • Sulawesi balance
  • Papua supply demand gap
  • Papua gas balance
  • Annual gas prices
  • Gas price outlook to power (Java)
  • Power gas prices (2017)
  • Industry gas prices (2017)
  • Fertiliser gas prices (2017)
  • Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
  • Major energy legislation
  • PERTAMINA's business lines (2016)
  • PERTAMINA's gas production and distribution
  • PGN's business lines (2016)
  • PGN's gas production and distribution
  • PLN's customer segments (2015)
  • PLN's power sales and gas consumption
  • West Java gas pipelines and fields
  • East Java gas pipelines and fields
  • Potential gas supply available: Sumatra and Natuna Sea*
  • Central Sumatra gas pipelines and fields
  • South Sumatra gas pipelines and fields
  • North Sumatra/Aceh gas pipelines and fields
  • Sumatra gas pipelines and fields
  • West Java total gas demand
  • West Java power sector gas users
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Central Java total gas demand
  • East Java total gas demand
  • Central and East Java power sector gas users
  • Central and East Java industry sector gas users
  • Central and East Java gas demand
  • Central and East Java supply demand gap
  • Central and East Java gas balance
  • Central and East Java pipeline utilisation
  • Central and South Sumatra supply demand gap
  • Central and South Sumatra gas balance
  • Central and South Sumatra pipeline utilisation
  • North Sumatra supply demand gap*
  • North Sumatra gas balance
  • Kalimantan supply demand gap
  • Kalimantan gas balance
  • Indonesia LNG production outlook*
  • Bontang LNG production outlook*
  • Tangguh LNG production outlook*
  • DSLNG LNG production outlook*
  • Sengkang LNG production outlook*
  • Abadi LNG production outlook*
  • Monthly seasonality
  • LNG: Image 7
  • LNG: Image 9
  • West Java LNG demand*
  • South Sumatra (Lampung) LNG demand*
  • East Java LNG demand
  • Bali LNG demand*
  • North Sumatra LNG demand*
  • LNG: Image 15
  • LNG: Image 16

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Indonesia gas data.xls

    XLS 1.72 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia LNG data.xls

    XLS 875.50 KB

  • Document

    Indonesia gas and LNG: 2017 long-term regional outlook

    PDF 2.72 MB

  • Document

    Indonesia gas and LNG: 2017 long-term regional outlook

    ZIP 3.11 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 977.19 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 98.53 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 251.42 KB

  • Document

    Key companies

    PDF 120.99 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 817.52 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 446.85 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 221.14 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 206.84 KB

  • Document

    LNG

    PDF 201.30 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 142.50 KB

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