Commodity market report
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70 Pages

Indonesia gas markets long-term outlook H2 2013


Indonesia gas markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Report summary

The dissolution of upstream regulator BP Migas and allegations of corruption at its replacement SKK Migas have cast much uncertainty over regulation of the sector.  Seeking project approvals are likely to be slowed down, which could have a knock-on effect on future gas production and Indonesia's gas export position.

What's included?

This report includes 4 file(s)

  • Indonesia gas markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 6.23 MB 70 Pages, 32 Tables, 65 Figures
  • Storyboard Indonesia gas and power markets long term outlook H2 2013.pdf PDF - 737.85 KB
  • Appendix Indonesia gas markets long term outlook H2 2013.pdf PDF - 214.26 KB
  • Indonesia Gas Data.xls XLS - 1.47 MB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Fuel price reforms have taken place
    • Delays in coal plants forces reliance on LNG
    • Indonesia needs international LNG volumes
    • Data Summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • In this section
    • Key players
      • Key offices
    • Indonesia gas market value chain
    • Energy policy
      • Competition
      • Fuel mix
      • Renewables
      • Pricing
    • Gas market regulation
      • Upstream
        • BP Migas dissolved
        • Domestic Market Obligation
        • Cost Recovery
        • Indonesian Participation
        • Unconventional
        • Transmission
      • Distribution and retail
      • Regulation
  • Supply
    • In this section
    • Supply from Java
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
    • Supply from Sumatra
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
    • Supply from Kalimantan
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
    • Supply from the rest of Indonesia
      • Contracted supply
      • Uncontracted supply potential
      • Yet-to-find supply potential
    • Unconventional gas
      • Coal Bed Methane (CBM)
      • Shale gas
    • Key participants
    • Appendix
  • Infrastructure
    • In this section
    • Gas pipeline infrastructure – existing
    • Gas pipeline infrastructure – under development & proposed
      • Additional West Java infrastructure
        • Cilegon - Serpong
        • West Java Ring Lines 1 - 3
      • Additional Central/East Java infrastructure
      • East to West Java pipeline
      • Arun to Medan pipeline
      • Kalimantan to Java pipeline
    • LNG infrastructure
      • Liquefaction terminals
      • Current regasification terminals development
      • Future regasification terminal development
    • Appendix
  • Demand
    • In this section
    • Power generation
      • Key messages
      • Power sector gas demand
    • Industrial
      • Ammonia/Urea
      • Gas aggregators
      • Petrochemicals
      • Enhanced oil recovery
      • Refineries
      • Transport
    • West Java gas demand
    • Central and East Java gas demand
    • Central and South Sumatra gas demand
    • North Sumatra (Medan and Aceh) gas demand
    • Batam gas demand
    • Kalimantan gas demand
    • Sulawesi gas demand
    • Papua gas demand
  • Supply-demand balances
    • In this section
    • LNG demand outlook
      • Domestic market obligation
    • West Java gas balance
      • West Java gas market balance
    • Central and East Java gas balance
      • Central and East Java gas market balance
    • Central and South Sumatra gas balance
      • Central and South Sumatra gas market balance
    • North Sumatra (Medan and Aceh) gas balance
      • North Sumatra gas market balance
    • Batam gas balance
      • Batam gas market balance
    • Kalimantan gas balance
      • Kalimantan gas market balance
    • Sulawesi gas balance
      • Sulawesi gas balance
    • Papua gas balance
      • Papua gas market balance
    • Timor gas
  • Prices
    • In this section
    • Current pricing trends
      • Imported LNG results in higher piped gas prices
      • Why are prices increasing?
      • Higher prices are a positive signal
      • Current LNG price contracts
    • Gas price forecast
    • Upstream gas prices
    • Midstream gas prices
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • GDP sensitivity on gas demand (Java and Sumatra)
    • Coal sensitivity on gas demand
      • Java-Bali
      • Sumatra
    • Gas supply sensitivities (West Java and North Sumatra)

In this report there are 97 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
    • Executive summary: Table 2
    • Executive summary: Table 3
    • Executive summary: Table 4
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP forecast - Indonesia
    • Economic Indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • Policy and regulation: Table 1
    • Indonesia’s energy policy and regulatory structure
    • Indonesia gas market value chain
    • Policy and regulation: Table 2
  • Supply
    • Total potential gas supply available - Indonesia
    • Potential gas supply available - Java*
    • West Java gas pipelines and fields
    • East Java gas pipelines and fields
    • Potential gas supply available - Sumatra and Natuna Sea*
    • Central Sumatra gas pipelines and fields
    • South Sumatra gas pipelines and fields
    • North Sumatra/Aceh gas pipelines and fields
    • Potential gas supply available - Kalimantan
    • Potential gas supply available – rest of Indonesia*
    • Indonesia gas reserves – top 20 reserve holders*
  • Infrastructure
    • Java-Bali gas pipelines and fields
    • Sumatra gas pipelines and fields
  • Demand
    • Power sector gas demand
    • West Java total gas demand
    • West Java power sector gas users
    • West Java industry sector gas users
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Central and East Java total gas demand
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Demand: Table 5
    • Demand: Table 6
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Central and South Sumatra power sector gas users
    • Central and South Sumatra industry sector gas users
    • Central and South Sumatra gas demand
    • North Sumatra total gas demand
    • North Sumatra power sector gas users
    • North Sumatra industry sector gas users
    • North Sumatra gas demand
    • Batam total gas demand
    • Demand: Table 13
    • Demand: Table 14
    • Kalimantan total gas demand
    • Demand: Table 15
    • Demand: Table 16
    • Demand: Table 17
    • Sulawesi total gas demand
    • Demand: Table 18
    • Demand: Table 19
    • Demand: Table 20
    • Papua total gas demand
    • Demand: Table 21
    • Demand: Table 22
    • Demand: Table 23
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Indonesia LNG demand
    • DMO Supply vs LNG Demand
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • West Java gas balance
    • West Java pipeline utilisation
    • West Java regasification terminal utilisation
    • Central and East Java supply demand gap
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 9
    • Central and East Java pipeline utilisation
    • Central and South Sumatra supply demand gap
    • Central and South Sumatra gas balance
    • North Sumatra supply demand gap
    • North Sumatra gas balance
    • North Sumatra regasification terminal utilisation
    • Batam supply demand gap
    • Batam gas balance
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 18
    • Kalimantan supply demand gap
    • Kalimantan gas balance
    • Bontang LNG* (East Kalimantan)
    • Sulawesi supply demand gap
    • Sulawesi balance
    • Donggi Senoro LNG* (Central Sulawesi)
    • Papua supply demand gap
    • Papua gas balance
    • Tangguh LNG* (West Papua)
    • Abadi LNG* (Timor)
  • Prices
    • Annual gas prices
    • Gas price outlook to 2031
    • Power gas prices - delivered (2013)
    • Industry gas prices - delivered (2013)
    • Fertiliser gas prices - delivered (2013)
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Summary of high impact scenarios
    • GDP growth assumptions for high and low case
    • Power demand sensitivity on gas
    • Java-Bali coal growth for high and low case
    • Java-Bali coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
    • Sumatra coal growth for high and low case
    • Sumatra coal demand sensitivity on gas in power
    • West Java LNG Sensitivity
    • North Sumatra LNG Sensitivity
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