Commodity Market Report

LNG short-term trade and price outlook (Q1 2018)

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01 March 2018

LNG short-term trade and price outlook (Q1 2018)

Report summary

Record demand from China absorbed a large part of the additional 33 Mt of LNG supply in 2017 but can it continue to support the market? We think yes for 2018, but there are limits to how quickly China can continue to add the infrastructure to take more LNG. LNG supply growth in 2018 slows a little adding “just” 27 Mt before accelerating again in 2019 to add 41 Mt in 2019 if US plants run at full capacity. Russian strategy will play a large part in if any LNG is shut-in or not. LNG market fundamentals remain similar to our last update. However, with the oil forward curve remaining high and production from Groningen in Europe now forecast lower, our analysis suggests that Russia will maximise its revenues by accommodating all LNG imports.

Table of contents

    • Global LNG fundamentals
      • LNG supply highlights
      • LNG demand highlights
      • Key market data
      • Price outlook/supply-demand balances
    • Pacific spot prices (Japan, DES)
      • Asia LNG supply and demand balance and spot price premium over European price
      • Asia LNG supply and demand balance and spot price premium over Europe (low case)
    • European gas fundamentals
      • Key data

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Henry Hub, Japan LNG spot, NBP and TTF Prices
  • Economics of US LNG to Europe
  • Executive summary: Image 3
  • Executive summary: Image 4
  • Executive summary: Table 2
  • Storage inventories
  • Russian imports

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    lng short term trade and price outlook q1 2018.xls

    XLS 1.12 MB

  • Document

    Asia LNG ST Report Demand Q1 2018.pdf

    PDF 273.19 KB

  • Document

    Rest of World LNG ST Report Demand Q1 2018.pdf

    PDF 460.58 KB

  • Document

    LNG short-term trade and price outlook (Q1 2018)

    PDF 364.28 KB

  • Document

    LNG short-term trade and price outlook (Q1 2018)

    ZIP 1.42 MB