Commodity market report
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14 Pages

LNG short-term trade and price outlook (Q3 2016)


LNG short-term trade and price outlook (Q3 2016)

Report summary

With global LNG supply set to increase in Winter '16/'17, Asian LNG prices are expected to soften - although a seasonal demand increase will still result in Asian prices being at a premium to European prices. In Europe, gas prices are expected to remain soft for the rest of 2016. Prices will strengthen in Q1 2017 supported by reduced LNG imports and the consequent requirement of Russian gas above ACQ levels.

In Q3 2017, the economics of US LNG to Europe will be tested. Price dynamics will result in the cash cost of delivered US LNG into Europe being at the margin, and we believe that some LNG trade will be uneconomic.

Included in the report are global LNG balances; forecast spot prices of Pacific LNG; European gas balances; and forecast gas spot prices in Northwest Europe and the USA. It is complemented by a global LNG supply-demand balance spread sheet with country granularity and our forecast for spot prices.

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • LNG short-term trade and price outlook (Q3 2016) PDF - 373.92 KB 14 Pages, 2 Tables, 13 Figures
  • Appendix LNG short-term trade and price outlook (Q3 2016) - Country supply and demand details.pdf PDF - 246.78 KB
  • LNG short term trade and price outlook Q3 2016.xls XLS - 761.00 KB

Description

As global energy demand rises, the market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) continues to expand. Set to increase by 50% between 2015 and 2020, the LNG market is one of the fastest growing in the world. This spectacular growth is transforming the market, with many new companies entering the sector and changing the industry landscape.

This LNG Short Term Outlook report provides an overview of LNG in the gas market.

LNG market participants and advisers can use this report to better understand the long-term role of this market in the global LNG business.

Offering bottom-up market analysis for over 150 LNG supply assets, 28 LNG-importing countries and more than 500 LNG contracts, Wood Mackenzie is the definitive and trusted resource for the LNG industry. We use our robust database and expert industry knowledge to help you understand the dynamics of the global LNG industry and identify emerging trends and opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • LNG supply highlights
    • Panama Canal expansion
    • LNG demand highlights
    • European gas highlights
    • Price outlook/supply-demand balances
    • US LNG utilisation
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Introduction
    • Global LNG fundamentals
      • LNG supply
    • LNG imports
      • Pacific
      • Atlantic
      • Pacific spot prices (Japan, DES)
      • European gas fundamentals
        • Key data
    • Gas supply
    • Flexible supply
    • European spot prices (NBP)

In this report there are 15 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global LNG supply
    • LNG supply - year-on-year-change
    • Asia net LNG imports
    • Asia net LNG imports - year-on-year change
    • Americas, MENA and European net LNG imports
    • Americas, MENA and European net LNG imports - year -on-year change
    • Global LNG (excl. Northwest Europe) – quarter-on-quarter change
    • Spot prices and shipping differentials
    • Japan LNG spot price
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Storage inventories*
    • Russian imports
    • Gas prices
    • Gas demand response – Coal to gas switching*
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