LNG short-term trade and price outlook (Q4 2016)
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Report summary
With November snow falling in Tokyo for the first time in 54 years a cold NE Asian winter will bring a much needed demand boost, to a market increasingly awash with new supply. However, with LNG production in 2017 forecast to be up 10.6% at 290 Mt, spot LNG prices will soon come under pressure. Higher global LNG supply will result in European LNG imports doubling in 2017 to 50 bcm (36 Mt), and utilities struggling to offtake their annual ToP commitments from Russian contracts. This will result in subdued European spot prices and, with increasing Henry Hub prices, in some US LNG being uneconomic. For many in the industry there will be some stark choices to be made in 2017.
What's included
This report contains
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- LNG supply highlights
- LNG demand highlights
- European gas highlights
- Price outlook/supply-demand balances
- US LNG outlook
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Supply-demand balances
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Introduction
- Global LNG fundamentals
- LNG supply
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LNG imports
- Pacific
- Atlantic
- Pacific spot prices (Japan, DES)
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European gas fundamentals
- Key data
- Flexible supply
- European gas prices (NBP and TFF)
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Introduction
Tables and charts
This report includes 15 images and tables including:
Images
- Executive summary: Image 1
- Storage inventories*
- Russian imports
- Gas Prices
- Global LNG supply
- LNG supply - year-on-year-change
- Asia net LNG imports
- Asia net LNG imports - year-on-year change
- Americas, MENA and European net LNG imports
- Americas, MENA and European net LNG imports - year -on-year change
- Global LNG (excl. Northwest Europe) – quarter-on-quarter change
- Spot prices and shipping differentials
- Japan LNG spot price
- Supply-demand balances: Image 10
- French Nuclear Production
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