With November snow falling in Tokyo for the first time in 54 years a cold NE Asian winter will bring a much needed demand boost, to a market increasingly awash with new supply. However, with LNG production in 2017 forecast to be up 10.6% at 290 Mt, spot LNG prices will soon come under pressure. Higher global LNG supply will result in European LNG imports doubling in 2017 to 50 bcm (36 Mt), and utilities struggling to offtake their annual ToP commitments from Russian contracts. This will result in subdued European spot prices and, with increasing Henry Hub prices, in some US LNG being uneconomic. For many in the industry there will be some stark choices to be made in 2017.