Commodity market report
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36 Pages

Netherlands gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014

Netherlands gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014

Report summary

A mild winter has kept demand low and seen prices  fall to below US$7/mmbtu in June. Despite this, we have seen limited demand response in the power sector as coal has maintained its attractiveness over gas. Assuming normal weather conditions, we expect prices to recover from this winter. A tight LNG market, capped Dutch production an increase in continental exports to the UK will keep prices high over the next few years, before greater supply competition emerges post 2018.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Netherlands gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 775.95 KB 36 Pages, 7 Tables, 34 Figures
  • EGAPS Netherlands Gas H1 2014.xls XLS - 1.06 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Recent Trends
    • Short/Mid term outlook summary (2014- 2017)
    • Long term outlook summary (2018- 2030)
  • Economic outlook
    • Q1 2014 Economic indicators (2005-2030)
  • Market structure
  • Policy and regulation
    • Energy agreement for sustainable growth
  • Demand
    • Recent events and short term outlook
      • Quarterly Dutch gas demand by sector (Q1 2011-Q4 2014)
    • Forecast summary
    • Non-power gas demand
    • Commercial
    • Industrial
    • Other
  • Supply
    • Gas production profile 2005-2030
  • Infrastructure
    • Existing gas infrastructure
      • Existing LNG infrastructure
      • Existing pipeline infrastructure
      • Existing gas storage infrastructure
    • New infrastructure
      • New pipeline infrastructure
      • New LNG infrastructure
      • New storage infrastructure
  • Contracts
    • Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply demand gap
    • Gas flows into the Netherlands
  • Costs
    • Transportation tariffs
      • Selected exit fees from the Dutch gas transportation system
  • Prices
    • The title transfer facility (TTF) and price development
      • TTF Hub price forecast
      • Annual gas prices (real 2014)
    • Trading at the TTF
    • Consumer gas prices
  • Margins
    • Household sector
    • Industrial sector

In this report there are 41 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Netherlands Gas Price Forecast
    • Gas Flows into Netherlands
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Table 1
    • GDP forecast - Netherlands
  • Market structure
    • Market structure: Table 1
    • Dutch gas network
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key offices
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Gas demand by sector 2005 to 2030
    • Contribution to growth H1 2014 - all sections (2014-30)
    • Non power gas demand by sector (2014-2030)
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Groningen low-cal production profile 2013-2030
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Existing import capacity
    • Existing export capacity
    • Existing infrastructure – gas storage (volume in mcm)
    • Forecast import capacity
    • Forecast export capacity
    • Planned gas storage (volume in mcm)
  • Contracts
    • Historical piped imports
    • Netherlands contracted piped imports
    • Historical LNG Imports
    • Netherlands contracted LNG imports
    • Historical piped exports
    • Netherlands contracted piped exports
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand gap
    • Gas flows into the Netherlands
    • Netherlands export and transit gas flows
  • Costs
    • Long run delivered costs of gas to Netherlands (2020)
    • Costs: Table 1
    • Selected entry fees to the Dutch gas transportation system
    • Costs: Table 3
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Development of gas trading at TTF
    • Historical consumer prices (2007-2013)
  • Margins
    • Household sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on oil indexed supply contracts
    • Household sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on TTF supply contracts
    • Household sector cost breakdown January 2012
    • Industrial sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on oil indexed supply contracts
    • Industrial sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on TTF wholesale prices
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