Mild weather saw gas demand in the Netherlands decline by 17% in the first part of 2014. High production in 2013 will see reduced output from Groningen over the next few years as a consequence of the ten year production cap. The TTF is increasingly becoming the reference pricing point by many market players throughout Europe. We expect Dutch gas prices to increase over the next few years before a global oversupply leads to a price collapse around 2020, before recovering in the longer term.
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Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.
This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.
Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.
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With production restricted by the government's cap, Groningen output will peak in 2020 before entering permanent decline
The Netherlands has a history of land drilling operations and there is a well-established supply chain. However, specialist unconventional gas services, such as hydraulic fracturing, are limited. Land access will be a significant obstacle to large scale drilling because the Netherlands is densely populated. In September 2013, the Dutch government launched a study assessing all potential shale drilling locations in the country. The study is expected to take up to 18 months to complete and no decision on whether shale gas drilling will be allowed to go ahead in the Netherlands will be taken until then. Any development plan will need to be discrete and unobtrusive to the local environment and could face significant local opposition.
Existing gas infrastructure
Existing LNG infrastructure
Existing pipeline infrastructure
Existing gas storage infrastructure
New pipeline infrastructure
New LNG infrastructure
New storage infrastructure
Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
Supply demand gap
Gas flows into the Netherlands
Selected exit fees from the Dutch gas transportation system
The title transfer facility (TTF) and price development
TTF Hub price forecast
Annual gas prices (real 2014)
Trading at the TTF
Consumer gas prices
In this report there are 40 tables or charts, including:
Netherlands Gas Price Forecast
Gas Flows into Netherlands
Economic outlook: Table 1
Economic outlook: Image 1
Market structure: Table 1
Dutch gas network
Policy and regulation
Gas demand by sector 2005 to 2035
Contribution to growth H2 2014 - all sections (2014-35)
Non power gas demand by sector (2014-2035)
Gas production profile (2005-2035)
Groningen low-cal production profile (2014-2035)
Infrastructure: Image 1
Existing import capacity
Existing export capacity
Existing infrastructure – gas storage (volume in mcm)
Forecast import capacity
orecast export capacity
Planned gas storage (volume in mcm)
Historical piped imports
Netherlands contracted piped imports
Historical LNG Imports
Netherlands contracted LNG imports
Historical piped exports
Netherlands contracted piped exports
Gas flows into the Netherlands
Netherlands export and transit gas flows
Long run delivered costs of gas to Netherlands
Costs: Table 1
Selected entry fees to the Dutch gas transportation system
Costs: Table 3
Prices: Image 1
Development of gas trading at TTF
Historical consumer prices (2007-2013)
Household sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on oil indexed supply contracts
Household sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on TTF supply contracts
Household sector cost breakdown January 2012
Industrial sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on oil indexed supply contracts
Industrial sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on TTF wholesale prices
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Commodity market report | Dec 2014
Netherlands gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014
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