Commodity market report
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35 Pages

Netherlands gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014


Netherlands gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

Mild weather saw gas demand in the Netherlands decline by 17% in the first part of 2014. High production in 2013 will see reduced output from Groningen over the next few years as a consequence of the ten year production cap. The TTF is increasingly becoming the reference pricing point by many market players throughout Europe. We expect Dutch gas prices to increase over the next few years before a global oversupply leads to a price collapse around 2020, before recovering in the longer term.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Netherlands gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 781.19 KB 35 Pages, 7 Tables, 33 Figures
  • EGAPS Netherlands Gas H2 2014.xls XLS - 1.33 MB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Recent Trends
    • Short/Mid term outlook summary (2015- 2017)
    • Long term outlook summary (2018- 2035)
  • Economic outlook
    • Q3 2014 Economic indicators (2005-2035)
    • GDP forecast - Netherlands
  • Market structure
  • Policy and regulation
    • Energy agreement for sustainable growth
  • Demand
    • Recent events and short term outlook
    • Forecast summary
    • Non-power gas demand
    • Commercial
    • Industrial
    • Other
  • Supply
    • With production restricted by the government's cap, Groningen output will peak in 2020 before entering permanent decline
    • The Netherlands has a history of land drilling operations and there is a well-established supply chain. However, specialist unconventional gas services, such as hydraulic fracturing, are limited. Land access will be a significant obstacle to large scale drilling because the Netherlands is densely populated. In September 2013, the Dutch government launched a study assessing all potential shale drilling locations in the country. The study is expected to take up to 18 months to complete and no decision on whether shale gas drilling will be allowed to go ahead in the Netherlands will be taken until then. Any development plan will need to be discrete and unobtrusive to the local environment and could face significant local opposition.
  • Infrastructure
    • Existing gas infrastructure
      • Existing LNG infrastructure
      • Existing pipeline infrastructure
      • Existing gas storage infrastructure
    • New infrastructure
      • New pipeline infrastructure
      • New LNG infrastructure
      • New storage infrastructure
  • Contracts
    • Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply demand gap
    • Gas flows into the Netherlands
  • Costs
    • Transportation tariffs
      • Selected exit fees from the Dutch gas transportation system
  • Prices
    • The title transfer facility (TTF) and price development
      • TTF Hub price forecast
      • Annual gas prices (real 2014)
    • Trading at the TTF
    • Consumer gas prices
  • Margins
    • Household sector
    • Industrial sector

In this report there are 40 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Netherlands Gas Price Forecast
    • Gas Flows into Netherlands
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Table 1
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
  • Market structure
    • Market structure: Table 1
    • Dutch gas network
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key offices
  • Demand
    • Gas demand by sector 2005 to 2035
    • Contribution to growth H2 2014 - all sections (2014-35)
    • Non power gas demand by sector (2014-2035)
  • Supply
    • Gas production profile (2005-2035)
    • Groningen low-cal production profile (2014-2035)
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Existing import capacity
    • Existing export capacity
    • Existing infrastructure – gas storage (volume in mcm)
    • Forecast import capacity
    • orecast export capacity
    • Planned gas storage (volume in mcm)
  • Contracts
    • Historical piped imports
    • Netherlands contracted piped imports
    • Historical LNG Imports
    • Netherlands contracted LNG imports
    • Historical piped exports
    • Netherlands contracted piped exports
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand gap
    • Gas flows into the Netherlands
    • Netherlands export and transit gas flows
  • Costs
    • Long run delivered costs of gas to Netherlands
    • Costs: Table 1
    • Selected entry fees to the Dutch gas transportation system
    • Costs: Table 3
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Development of gas trading at TTF
    • Historical consumer prices (2007-2013)
  • Margins
    • Household sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on oil indexed supply contracts
    • Household sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on TTF supply contracts
    • Household sector cost breakdown January 2012
    • Industrial sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on oil indexed supply contracts
    • Industrial sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on TTF wholesale prices
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