Commodity market report

Netherlands gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

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Report summary

Mild weather saw gas demand in the Netherlands decline by 17% in the first part of 2014. High production in 2013 will see reduced output from Groningen over the next few years as a consequence of the ten year production cap.The TTF is increasingly becoming the reference pricing point by many market players throughout Europe. We expect Dutch gas prices to increase over the next few years before a global oversupply leads to a price collapse around 2020, before recovering in the longer term.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    EGAPS Netherlands Gas H2 2014.xls

    XLS 1.33 MB

  • Document

    Netherlands gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

    PDF 781.19 KB

  • Document

    Netherlands gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

    ZIP 1.11 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 87.57 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 89.92 KB

  • Document

    Market structure

    PDF 87.43 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 86.05 KB

  • Document


    PDF 121.45 KB

  • Document


    PDF 86.19 KB

  • Document


    PDF 379.71 KB

  • Document


    PDF 104.41 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 100.32 KB

  • Document


    PDF 119.00 KB

  • Document


    PDF 94.45 KB

  • Document


    PDF 90.70 KB

Table of contents

    • Recent Trends
    • Short/Mid term outlook summary (2015- 2017)
    • Long term outlook summary (2018- 2035)
    • Q3 2014 Economic indicators (2005-2035)
    • GDP forecast - Netherlands
  • Market structure
    • Energy agreement for sustainable growth
    • Recent events and short term outlook
    • Forecast summary
    • Non-power gas demand
    • Commercial
    • Industrial
    • Other
    • With production restricted by the government's cap, Groningen output will peak in 2020 before entering permanent decline
    • The Netherlands has a history of land drilling operations and there is a well-established supply chain. However, specialist unconventional gas services, such as hydraulic fracturing, are limited. Land access will be a significant obstacle to large scale drilling because the Netherlands is densely populated. In September 2013, the Dutch government launched a study assessing all potential shale drilling locations in the country. The study is expected to take up to 18 months to complete and no decision on whether shale gas drilling will be allowed to go ahead in the Netherlands will be taken until then. Any development plan will need to be discrete and unobtrusive to the local environment and could face significant local opposition.
    • Supply demand gap
    • Gas flows into the Netherlands
    • Household sector
    • Industrial sector

Tables and charts

This report includes 40 images and tables including:


  • Gas production profile (2005-2035)
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • Long run delivered costs of gas to Netherlands
  • Netherlands Gas Price Forecast
  • Gas Flows into Netherlands
  • Economic outlook: Image 1
  • Gas demand by sector 2005 to 2035
  • Contribution to growth H2 2014 - all sections (2014-35)
  • Non power gas demand by sector (2014-2035)
  • Groningen low-cal production profile (2014-2035)
  • Existing import capacity
  • Existing export capacity
  • Forecast import capacity
  • orecast export capacity
  • Supply-demand gap
  • Gas flows into the Netherlands
  • Netherlands export and transit gas flows
  • Development of gas trading at TTF
  • Historical consumer prices (2007-2013)
  • Household sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on oil indexed supply contracts
  • Household sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on TTF supply contracts
  • Household sector cost breakdown January 2012
  • Industrial sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on oil indexed supply contracts
  • Industrial sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on TTF wholesale prices
  • Existing infrastructure – gas storage (volume in mcm)
  • Planned gas storage (volume in mcm)
  • Historical piped imports
  • Netherlands contracted piped imports
  • Historical LNG Imports
  • Netherlands contracted LNG imports
  • Historical piped exports
  • Netherlands contracted piped exports
  • Prices: Image 1


  • Market structure: Table 1
  • Dutch gas network
  • Key offices
  • Economic outlook: Table 1
  • Costs: Table 1
  • Selected entry fees to the Dutch gas transportation system
  • Costs: Table 3

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