Commodity market report

North America gas long-term outlook H2 2017 highlights: Regionalized supply and demand underscore the importance of midstream

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Report summary

In North America, the supply picture continues to strengthen. Associated gas grows by 6 bcfd to 28 bcfd by 2020, during which time the Northeast pipeline buildout continues, adding another 13 bcfd of takeaway capacity over 2018-2020 from the lowest cost gas resource in North America. Permian activity continues to lead the way for associated gas, with over 3 bcfd growth, and represents 10% of North America supply. Northeast operators are not poised to keep up with the new pipeline capacity; the region will constrain again in the 2022 timeframe with narrowed basis until then. During this period, gas demand into US power generation grows by 3.5 bcfd from 2017, and strengthening global fundamentals support growing US LNG exports from their 2 bcfd level in 2017 to over 7 bcfd in 2020. By 2021, Henry Hub prices will start to rise again but don't cross $3/mmbtu until 2025.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    North America LNG - Imports Exports H2 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 8.93 MB

  • Document

    North America Production-Demand-Prices H2 2017.xls

    XLS 2.50 MB

  • Document

    North America gas long-term outlook H2 2017 highlights: Regionalized supply and demand underscore the importance of midstream

    PDF 488.85 KB

  • Document

    North America gas long-term outlook H2 2017 highlights: Regionalized supply and demand underscore the importance of midstream

    ZIP 2.52 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 117.07 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 121.55 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 107.27 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 118.84 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 124.92 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 153.39 KB

  • Document

    LNG Exports

    PDF 103.04 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 206.10 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 143.56 KB

  • Document

    Regas

    PDF 55.58 KB

  • Document

    Regas

    PDF 55.55 KB

Table of contents

    • Continued strength in the upstream sector keeps Henry Hub prices below $3/mmbtu until another round of pipeline investment is required
  • Supply
    • US LNG utilization rides on the back of improving global gas dynamics to support full utilization by 2022.
    • The oversupply will be shorter and less pronounced than previously expected
    • Cheap supply will have Henry Hub prices on a downward march.
      • Northeast
      • Permian
      • Canada
    • LNG imports continue to fall, supported only by New England in the long term.

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

Images

  • Gas production growth by region
  • Henry Hub Price Outlook
  • WTI Price Outlook
  • US LNG capacity
  • Global gas prices
  • Year-over-year supply growth
  • US regional power demand (net of renewables)
  • North America generation by fuel
  • Gas demand for power by census region
  • New Northeast takeaway capacity by direction
  • Northeast production and Dominion South Point prices
  • Permian and Waha basis outlook
  • Permian supply by direction
  • Canadian and Pacific Northwest basis outlook
  • Canadian production forecast

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