North America gas long-term outlook H2 2017 highlights: Regionalized supply and demand underscore the importance of midstream
In North America, the supply picture continues to strengthen. Associated gas grows by 6 bcfd to 28 bcfd by 2020, during which time the Northeast pipeline buildout continues, adding another 13 bcfd of takeaway capacity over 2018-2020 from the lowest cost gas resource in North America. Permian activity continues to lead the way for associated gas, with over 3 bcfd growth, and represents 10% of North America supply. Northeast operators are not poised to keep up with the new pipeline capacity; the region will constrain again in the 2022 timeframe with narrowed basis until then. During this period, gas demand into US power generation grows by 3.5 bcfd from 2017, and strengthening global fundamentals support growing US LNG exports from their 2 bcfd level in 2017 to over 7 bcfd in 2020. By 2021, Henry Hub prices will start to rise again but don't cross $3/mmbtu until 2025.