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18 Pages

North America gas markets April short-term outlook: a price bump over the summer, but we could be long production next year

North America gas markets April short-term outlook: a price bump over the summer, but we could be long production next year

Report summary

In April, the gas market is a series of contradictions. Warmer than normal weather is bearish for this month but possibly bullish for May.  2017 looks short production, but 2018 looks long. There's progress with some Northeast pipelines, but stalls for others. With the anticipated uptick in gas prices this summer, coal could be expected to take some of the power burn, but coal market tightness and lacks of miners, time and capital may restrict expansions in coal production. Such restrictions may be warranted, as gas production next year will far outstrip market growth:  Northeast pipelines come online this winter, Haynesville producers reap gains from increased capex commitments, and Permian associated gas is protected from downside by oil hedges. All of this suggests the strongest ever year of US gas production growth in 2018, and even with LNG exports ramping up, Henry Hub prices next year could average $3.20/mmbtu.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • North America gas markets April short-term outlook: a price bump over the summer, but we could be long production next year PDF - 472.55 KB 18 Pages, 7 Tables, 9 Figures
  • Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 129.50 KB
  • Demand Detail.xls XLS - 670.00 KB
  • Industrial Index.xls XLS - 121.00 KB
  • LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 220.50 KB
  • NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 116.50 KB
  • Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 495.50 KB
  • Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 124.50 KB
  • Price Outlook.xls XLS - 136.00 KB
  • Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 149.00 KB
  • Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 306.00 KB
  • Supply Detail.xls XLS - 278.00 KB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Supply—some summer upside?
    • Coal Call
    • 2018—How much supply?
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply
  • Demand
    • Coal
  • LNG
  • Regional
    • Basis outlook
    • Imports from US
    • Demand
    • Supply
    • Other

In this report there are 16 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Short-term price outlook
    • Henry Hub price outlook
    • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Infrastructure
    • Chart 1: Weather adjusted withdrawals still strong
    • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Supply
    • Key supply metrics and indicators
    • Completions
    • San Juan rig count
    • Lower 48 dry gas production forecast
  • Demand
    • Twelve-month industrial demand forecast
  • LNG
    • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Regional
    • Destinations for Northeast supply
    • Basis outlook
    • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Major projects
    • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
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