Commodity Market Report
North America gas markets sensitivity: No Carbon Policy, developed from the H1 2019 long-term outlook
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Report summary
Wood Mackenzie's H1 2019 long-term outlook base case assumes a federal long-term carbon policy, a flat US carbon tax of $2 per short ton (st) beginning in 2028 that increases to $26/st by 2040, consistent with the global Wood Mackenzie view. However, this No Carbon Policy sensitivity assumes a future without any US federal carbon pricing. In this No Carbon case, coal plants do not retire as quickly and renewables increase at a slower pace compared to our base case. Power demand for gas will be lower overall without the carbon tax incentivizing coal-to-gas switching, but the relatively flat supply curve protects additional downside risk to Henry Hub.
Table of contents
- This No Carbon case represents the absence of any kind of federal carbon policy but maintains non-federal CO2 cap-and-trade programs and regional CO2 markets such as California, RGGI, and Canadian initiatives
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