We expect production in the US and Canada to decline by 0.1 bcfd year-over-year through the injection season. Given those declines, and assuming normal summer weather, the increases in demand should be enough to support prices in the low $2/mmbtu range at the Henry Hub and hold storage inventories below constraints. Expect an end-of-season inventory level of 3.8 tcf, well below the 4.25 tcf limit.
All markets look set to step up this summer. The shuttering of aluminum smelters, idling of iron ore and steel capacity, and low or negative GDP expectations in resource-based states limit overall power generation growth, yet reduced coal contracting and gas prices below $2.50/mmbtu should be enough to support a year-over-year increase in gas burn from the power sector of 1.8 bcfd through the balance of injection season.
This report includes 12 file(s)
North America gas markets short-term outlook April 2016 PDF - 913.67 KB 18 Pages, 7 Tables, 6 Figures
Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 128.00 KB
Demand Detail.xls XLS - 754.50 KB
Industrial Index.xls XLS - 121.50 KB
LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 230.50 KB
NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 104.50 KB
Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 460.50 KB
Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 102.00 KB
Price Outlook.xls XLS - 135.00 KB
Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 142.50 KB
Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 314.00 KB
Supply Detail.xls XLS - 264.50 KB
Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.
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Commodity market report | Apr 2016
North America gas markets short-term outlook April 2016
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