Commodity market report
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18 Pages

North America gas markets short-term outlook April 2016

North America gas markets short-term outlook April 2016

Report summary

We expect production in the US and Canada to decline by 0.1 bcfd year-over-year through the injection season. Given those declines, and assuming normal summer weather, the increases in demand should be enough to support prices in the low $2/mmbtu range at the Henry Hub and hold storage inventories below constraints. Expect an end-of-season inventory level of 3.8 tcf, well below the 4.25 tcf limit.

All markets look set to step up this summer. The shuttering of aluminum smelters, idling of iron ore and steel capacity, and low or negative GDP expectations in resource-based states limit overall power generation growth, yet reduced coal contracting and gas prices below $2.50/mmbtu should be enough to support a year-over-year increase in gas burn from the power sector of 1.8 bcfd through the balance of injection season.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • North America gas markets short-term outlook April 2016 PDF - 913.67 KB 18 Pages, 7 Tables, 6 Figures
  • Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 128.00 KB
  • Demand Detail.xls XLS - 754.50 KB
  • Industrial Index.xls XLS - 121.50 KB
  • LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 230.50 KB
  • NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 104.50 KB
  • Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 460.50 KB
  • Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 102.00 KB
  • Price Outlook.xls XLS - 135.00 KB
  • Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 142.50 KB
  • Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 314.00 KB
  • Supply Detail.xls XLS - 264.50 KB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Infrastructure
    • Storage
  • Supply
  • Demand
    • Industrial
    • Residential and Commercial
    • Power
  • LNG
  • Regional
    • Northeast
      • Basis outlook
      • Pipeline build outlook
    • West
    • Canada
    • Mexico

In this report there are 13 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Short term price outlook
    • Henry Hub price outlook
    • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Infrastructure
    • Supply-demand imbalance is about 1.6 bcfd tighter than normal
    • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Supply
    • Key supply metrics and indicators
    • Greene County acreage by operator
  • Demand
    • Leading indicators
    • Demand: Table 1
  • LNG
    • LNG feed gas expectations
  • Regional
    • New Northeast pipeline build-out in 2016/2017
    • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
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