North America gas markets short-term outlook: Are we short on supply for this upcoming winter?

Well, Henry Hub’s a little different than where it was this time last year; instead of plumbing new lows around $1.50/mmbtu, we’re now pushing $4.00. One normally associates sky-high prices like this with extreme events: this past February’s freeze-off, or the early cold spell in winter 2018/2019. But it’s only July, and the heat has slacked off at least a little from where it was in June, so what gives? The price rally is not so much about hotter weather forecasts, higher exports, or production slowing down from various maintenance events. It’s about whether there will be enough gas as we exit the upcoming winter. Are worries of a storage stock-out this year real? Or will coal-to-gas displacement at higher gas prices be more “stickier” resulting in higher gas burns as we approach peak summer power demand?