Commodity market report
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20 Pages

North America gas markets short-term outlook August 2016


North America gas markets short-term outlook August 2016

Report summary

With milder weather predicted in the weeks ahead, and some stabilization and modest recovery on the supply side, Henry Hub prices are not expected to recover much through the balance of the season despite very low weather-adjusted injections. Watch for average September and October prices of $2.60/mmbtu and $2.70/mmbtu, and a 3.89 tcf end-of-season inventory level. Despite recent producer guidance toward higher US gas production in 2017, some tightening in global LNG markets driven by steep declines in Chinese coal production means next year's Henry Hub price is expected to average about $3.75/mmbtu.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • North America gas markets short-term outlook August 2016 PDF - 1.17 MB 20 Pages, 6 Tables, 9 Figures
  • Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 132.50 KB
  • Demand Detail.xls XLS - 670.00 KB
  • Industrial Index.xls XLS - 121.00 KB
  • LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 230.00 KB
  • NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 116.00 KB
  • Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 486.50 KB
  • Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 113.50 KB
  • Price Outlook.xls XLS - 137.50 KB
  • Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 151.50 KB
  • Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 305.50 KB
  • Supply Detail.xls XLS - 366.50 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Stronger markets in 2017
    • Export markets in 2017
    • Could US gas-to-coal competition keep gas prices below $3.50 in 2017?
    • Could the Northeast again surprise to the upside in 2017?
  • Infrastructure
    • Storage
  • Supply
    • Key supply metrics and indicators
  • Demand
    • Industrial
    • Power
  • LNG
  • Regional
    • Northeast
      • Pipeline build outlook
      • Pipeline outages and flows
      • Basis outlook
    • West
    • Canada
    • Mexico

In this report there are 15 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Short term price outlook
    • Henry Hub price outlook
    • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Infrastructure
    • Chart 1: SD imbalance is about 4.7 bcfd tighter than normal
    • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Haynesville EUR map
    • Lower 48 dry gas production forecast
  • Demand
    • Leading indicators
  • LNG
    • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Regional
    • Texas Eastern flows east of Delmont compressor
    • Texas Eastern flows through Delmont compressor
    • Basis outlook
    • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
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