High storage inventories will mute any increase in price through withdrawal season, but normal or above normal heating loads along with extremely high power demand should boost withdrawals late in the season. This January, normal temperatures and a $2.25/mmbtu price could stretch demand from the power sector to 27 bcfd—another record. Already this month power demand has cleared 28 bcfd on an average day; once temperatures cool and generation ramps up, watch for a total above 30 bcfd. As far west as Minnesota, gas outcompetes Powder River Basin coal at a delivered price below $2.50/mmbtu. This market doesn't yet look like a repeat of 2012; reduced coal production and lower coal contracting, plus month-over-month declines in Lower 48 production should keep inventories in check so long as winter finally arrives. End of March inventories are expected to bottom out at 2.0 tcf; prices are likely at a bottom this week.
This report includes 12 file(s)
North America gas markets short-term outlook December 2015 PDF - 501.63 KB 18 Pages, 5 Tables, 11 Figures
Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 131.00 KB
Demand Detail.xls XLS - 754.50 KB
Industrial Index.xls XLS - 121.50 KB
LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 406.00 KB
NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 106.00 KB
Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 458.50 KB
Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 104.50 KB
Price Outlook.xls XLS - 139.50 KB
Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 142.50 KB
Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 314.00 KB
Supply Detail.xls XLS - 433.00 KB
Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.
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Commodity market report | Dec 2015
North America gas markets short-term outlook December 2015
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