Commodity market report
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18 Pages

North America gas markets short-term outlook December 2015

North America gas markets short-term outlook December 2015

Report summary

High storage inventories will mute any increase in price through withdrawal season, but normal or above normal heating loads along with extremely high power demand should boost withdrawals late in the season. This January, normal temperatures and a $2.25/mmbtu price could stretch demand from the power sector to 27 bcfd—another record. Already this month power demand has cleared 28 bcfd on an average day; once temperatures cool and generation ramps up, watch for a total above 30 bcfd. As far west as Minnesota, gas outcompetes Powder River Basin coal at a delivered price below $2.50/mmbtu. This market doesn't yet look like a repeat of 2012; reduced coal production and lower coal contracting, plus month-over-month declines in Lower 48 production should keep inventories in check so long as winter finally arrives. End of March inventories are expected to bottom out at 2.0 tcf; prices are likely at a bottom this week.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • North America gas markets short-term outlook December 2015 PDF - 501.63 KB 18 Pages, 5 Tables, 11 Figures
  • Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 131.00 KB
  • Demand Detail.xls XLS - 754.50 KB
  • Industrial Index.xls XLS - 121.50 KB
  • LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 406.00 KB
  • NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 106.00 KB
  • Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 458.50 KB
  • Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 104.50 KB
  • Price Outlook.xls XLS - 139.50 KB
  • Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 142.50 KB
  • Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 314.00 KB
  • Supply Detail.xls XLS - 433.00 KB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Activity and production risk?
  • Infrastructure
    • Storage
  • Supply
    • Key supply metrics and indicators
  • Demand
    • Industrial
    • Residential and Commercial
      • Power
  • LNG
    • Sabine Pass
  • Regional
    • Northeast basis
      • Northeast basis production and pipe: mild weather and mild prices for Christmas
    • Canada
    • Mexico

In this report there are 16 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Short term price outlook
    • Henry Hub price outlook
    • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Infrastructure
    • Chart 1: SD imbalance will tighten rapidly the next three weeks.
    • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Lower 48 production forecast
  • Demand
    • Leading indicators
    • Low degree day totals responsible for 460 bcf of lost LDC demand
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Image 4
  • LNG
    • LNG feed gas expectations
  • Regional
    • Regional: Image 1
    • Regional: Image 2
    • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
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