Commodity market report
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19 Pages

North America gas markets short-term outlook December 2016

North America gas markets short-term outlook December 2016

Report summary

Arctic cold hit North America over the past week, and heavy demand and storage draws pushed the January NYMEX close to $3.26, up from $3.07/mmbtu in late November. For both commodities, tighter markets should keep prices elevated through the winter season and into 2017. The question now is how quickly additional supplies could come online given renewed price strength. In Wood Mackenzie's view, even with a stronger rig recovery in the oil plays and continued drilling increases in the Haynesville, Henry Hub prices look set to average $3.63/mmbtu for 2017. By 2018, a surge in associated gas supply and delayed Northeast debottlenecking projects should ease prices down to $3.55/mmbtu, with relatively weaker prices late in the year.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • North America gas markets short-term outlook December 2016 PDF - 617.96 KB 19 Pages, 6 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 131.50 KB
  • Demand Detail.xls XLS - 670.00 KB
  • Industrial Index.xls XLS - 121.00 KB
  • LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 231.50 KB
  • NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 116.50 KB
  • Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 497.00 KB
  • Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 114.50 KB
  • Price Outlook.xls XLS - 136.50 KB
  • Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 149.50 KB
  • Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 306.00 KB
  • Supply Detail.xls XLS - 279.00 KB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Winter 2017: a heavy call on storage
    • Markets remain tight through late 2017
    • Could a stronger rig response send prices back below $3 by late 2017?
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply
  • Demand
    • Power
  • LNG
  • Regional
    • Basis outlook
    • Pipeline build outlook
    • Pipeline outages and flows

In this report there are 16 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Added rigs by play in the +100 case
    • Added gas supply by play in the +100 case by end 2017
    • Added gas supply per rig
    • Short-term price outlook
    • Henry Hub price outlook
    • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Infrastructure
    • Chart 1: SD imbalance is about 3.0 bcfd tighter than normal
    • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Supply
    • Key supply metrics and indicators
    • Lower 48 dry gas production forecast
  • Demand
    • Leading indicators
  • LNG
    • International forward prices and forecasts
    • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Regional
    • Basis outlook
    • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
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Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

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At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.