Commodity market report

North America gas markets short-term outlook December 2016

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Report summary

Arctic cold hit North America over the past week, and heavy demand and storage draws pushed the January NYMEX close to $3.26, up from $3.07/mmbtu in late November. For both commodities, tighter markets should keep prices elevated through the winter season and into 2017. The question now is how quickly additional supplies could come online given renewed price strength. In Wood Mackenzie's view, even with a stronger rig recovery in the oil plays and continued drilling increases in the Haynesville, Henry Hub prices look set to average $3.63/mmbtu for 2017. By 2018, a surge in associated gas supply and delayed Northeast debottlenecking projects should ease prices down to $3.55/mmbtu, with relatively weaker prices late in the year.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Basis Outlook.xls

    XLS 131.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand Detail.xls

    XLS 670.00 KB

  • Document

    Industrial Index.xls

    XLS 121.00 KB

  • Document

    LNG Detail incl Export.xls

    XLS 231.50 KB

  • Document

    NGL Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 116.50 KB

  • Document

    Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls

    XLS 497.00 KB

  • Document

    Power Demand Curve.xls

    XLS 114.50 KB

  • Document

    Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 136.50 KB

  • Document

    Storage Outlook.xls

    XLS 149.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply Demand Balances.xls

    XLS 306.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply Detail.xls

    XLS 279.00 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook December 2016

    PDF 617.96 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook December 2016

    ZIP 2.06 MB

Table of contents

    • Winter 2017: a heavy call on storage
    • Markets remain tight through late 2017
    • Could a stronger rig response send prices back below $3 by late 2017?
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply
    • Power
  • LNG
    • Basis outlook
    • Pipeline build outlook
    • Pipeline outages and flows

Tables and charts

This report includes 16 images and tables including:


  • Chart 1: SD imbalance is about 3.0 bcfd tighter than normal
  • Lower 48 dry gas production forecast
  • Leading indicators
  • International forward prices and forecasts
  • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Added rigs by play in the +100 case
  • Added gas supply by play in the +100 case by end 2017
  • Added gas supply per rig
  • Henry Hub price outlook
  • Basis outlook


  • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Key supply metrics and indicators
  • Short-term price outlook
  • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)

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