Commodity market report
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19 Pages

North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2016


North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2016

Report summary

A repeat of 2012's record-high storage end of March inventories isn't likely in the Lower 48 this year, but high storage inventories and high coal stockpiles will limit price recovery through the start of this next injection season. And weather isn't the only factor limiting withdrawals: US production ramped up in the Northeast when temperatures trended colder and operators brought curtailed and DUC wells online. In Canada, LNG appraisal wells, wells completed out of the backlog and mild weather boosted production to 16 bcfd this month—the highest total in eight years. This slug of supply means that for March, even if temperatures hold at monthly norms, withdrawals are expected to average just 8.9 bcfd, even with low prices and expected record-high power demand. A more normal close to winter and an end of season storage inventory level of 2.15 tcf should be enough to hold prices around $2/mmbtu.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2016 PDF - 1.67 MB 19 Pages, 5 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 129.50 KB
  • Demand Detail.xls XLS - 754.50 KB
  • Industrial Index.xls XLS - 148.50 KB
  • LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 230.50 KB
  • NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 106.00 KB
  • Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 512.00 KB
  • Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 104.50 KB
  • Price Outlook.xls XLS - 135.00 KB
  • Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 150.00 KB
  • Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 314.00 KB
  • Supply Detail.xls XLS - 432.00 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Supply stalling in 2016
    • 2017—Negatives for both supply and markets
  • Infrastructure
    • Storage
  • Supply
    • Key supply metrics and indicators
  • Demand
    • Industrial
    • Residential and Commercial
      • Power
        • Nuclear uncertainty highlights the Northeast
  • LNG
    • Sabine Pass
  • Regional
    • Northeast
    • Northeast basis production, and pipe
    • West
      • California solar capacity expected to grow by 25% in 2016.
      • Aliso Canyon update: leak permanently sealed, storage field limited to 15 Bcf.
    • Canada
      • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Mexico

In this report there are 15 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Short term price outlook
    • Henry Hub price outlook
    • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Infrastructure
    • Supply-demand imbalance is about 2.5 bcfd tighter than normal
    • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Lower 48 dry gas production forecast
  • Demand
    • Leading indicators
    • Utilization Rate Needed to Consume Contracted Energy
  • LNG
    • LNG feed gas expectations
  • Regional
    • Solar Generation CAISO SP-15
    • Southern California Solar New Builds 2015 - 2016
    • Regional: Image 3
    • Regional: Table 1
    • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
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