A repeat of 2012's record-high storage end of March inventories isn't likely in the Lower 48 this year, but high storage inventories and high coal stockpiles will limit price recovery through the start of this next injection season. And weather isn't the only factor limiting withdrawals: US production ramped up in the Northeast when temperatures trended colder and operators brought curtailed and DUC wells online. In Canada, LNG appraisal wells, wells completed out of the backlog and mild weather boosted production to 16 bcfd this month—the highest total in eight years. This slug of supply means that for March, even if temperatures hold at monthly norms, withdrawals are expected to average just 8.9 bcfd, even with low prices and expected record-high power demand. A more normal close to winter and an end of season storage inventory level of 2.15 tcf should be enough to hold prices around $2/mmbtu.
This report includes 12 file(s)
North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2016 PDF - 1.67 MB 19 Pages, 5 Tables, 10 Figures
Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 129.50 KB
Demand Detail.xls XLS - 754.50 KB
Industrial Index.xls XLS - 148.50 KB
LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 230.50 KB
NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 106.00 KB
Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 512.00 KB
Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 104.50 KB
Price Outlook.xls XLS - 135.00 KB
Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 150.00 KB
Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 314.00 KB
Supply Detail.xls XLS - 432.00 KB
Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.
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North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2016
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