Commodity market report

North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2017: More bearish in 2018, but still hope for the summer

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Report summary

What could be the warmest February ever has completely overpowered tight market fundamentals dropping the March contract from $3.26 at this time last month to $2.57 yesterday. The question is now whether there's still potential for a rally during injection season. Despite some other bearish factors that have cropped up in the past month including reduced expectations for exports to Mexico even more rig additions and less uncertainty around pipelines out of the Northeast with FERC's recent flurry of permits these factors look to make an impact toward the end of the year and into 2018 and for this summer a moderate price rally looks likely on the back of strong LNG exports and stronger coal to gas switching in power burns.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Basis Outlook.xls

    XLS 130.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand Detail.xls

    XLS 670.00 KB

  • Document

    Industrial Index.xls

    XLS 121.00 KB

  • Document

    LNG Detail incl Export.xls

    XLS 220.50 KB

  • Document

    NGL Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 116.50 KB

  • Document

    Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls

    XLS 496.00 KB

  • Document

    Power Demand Curve.xls

    XLS 124.50 KB

  • Document

    Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 136.00 KB

  • Document

    Storage Outlook.xls

    XLS 150.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply Demand Balances.xls

    XLS 306.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply Detail.xls

    XLS 278.50 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2017: More bearish in 2018, but still hope for the summer

    PDF 493.08 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2017: More bearish in 2018, but still hope for the summer

    ZIP 1.94 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply
  • Demand
  • LNG
  • Regional

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

Images

  • Henry Hub price outlook
  • Lower 48 dry gas production forecast
  • Leading indicators
  • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • SD imbalance is very tight
  • Powder River Basin production v. apparent capacity (annualized Mst)
  • Regional: Image 1

Tables

  • Short-term price outlook
  • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Key supply metrics and indicators
  • Coal Retirements (MW), 2017-2018
  • Northeast exit capacity status
  • Regional: Table 2
  • Major projects
  • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)

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