Commodity Market Report

North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2018: seeking support from the power market

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21 February 2018

North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2018: seeking support from the power market

Report summary

A warm February has brought the March contract down from inflated optimism at trading time last month. And with production growth of about 5 bcfd over the past half year and another record wind generation season approaching, there is no need to ration gas this March. However, we still think we could find price support this shoulder season from a more back-loaded production growth profile in 2018 and coal-to-gas switching, while wind generation will be the wildcard.

Table of contents

    • Winter 2018/2019: how marginal is Haynesville?
    • Balance of 2019: could demand and export growth finally outpace supply growth?
    • Storage
  • Supply
    • Power
    • Sabine Pass: operational issues continue, with no reduction in output--yet
    • Cove Point: a cargo by the end of the month?
    • Freeport: late Q1 2019
    • Basis outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • Average wind capacity factor vs. hourly temperature
  • Key supply metrics and indicators
  • Lower 48 dry production forecast
  • Short-term price outlook
  • Henry Hub price outlook
  • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Weather adjusted withdrawals 2.3 bcfd above normal
  • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Dominion South Basis
  • Basis outlook
  • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Basis Outlook.xls

    XLS 130.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand Detail.xls

    XLS 697.50 KB

  • Document

    Industrial Index.xls

    XLS 124.00 KB

  • Document

    LNG Detail incl Export.xls

    XLS 228.50 KB

  • Document

    NGL Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 133.50 KB

  • Document

    Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls

    XLS 538.50 KB

  • Document

    Power Demand Curve.xls

    XLS 125.00 KB

  • Document

    Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 136.50 KB

  • Document

    Storage Outlook.xls

    XLS 156.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply Demand Balances.xls

    XLS 315.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply Detail.xlsx

    XLSX 213.87 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2018: seeking support from the power market

    PDF 520.42 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook February 2018: seeking support from the power market

    ZIP 2.05 MB

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