Commodity market report
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22 Pages

North America gas markets short-term outlook January 2016

North America gas markets short-term outlook January 2016

Report summary

Market fears about a repeat of the 2012 record-high inventory levels are beginning to dissipate as the withdrawal pace remains strong and January heating loads are expected to be close to normal, even with the warmer weather in the 14-day forecast. The expected January withdrawal rate  is 26.2 bcfd, exceeding the five year average by 2 bcfd, and the February NYMEX contract closed Friday at $2.15/mmbtu, up from $1.86/mmbtu a month ago. Those low $2/mmbtu prices should support power loads—despite high coal stockpiles—and if weather holds close to normal through the balance of withdrawal season, inventories should drop to 1.99 tcf by the end of March. Watch for a modest price recovery; we expect Henry Hub prices to average $2.15 and $2.20/mmbtu in February and March as the storage surplus continues to close.

What's included?

This report includes 13 file(s)

  • North America gas markets short-term outlook January 2016 PDF - 968.78 KB 22 Pages, 6 Tables, 12 Figures
  • Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 130.50 KB
  • Demand Detail.xls XLS - 2.38 MB
  • Imbalance Chart Jan2016.xls XLS - 576.00 KB
  • Industrial Index.xls XLS - 196.00 KB
  • LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 293.50 KB
  • NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 106.00 KB
  • Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 460.50 KB
  • Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 104.50 KB
  • Price Outlook.xls XLS - 139.50 KB
  • Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 150.00 KB
  • Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 314.00 KB
  • Supply Detail.xls XLS - 696.00 KB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Oil
  • Infrastructure
    • Storage
  • Supply
    • Supply details
  • Demand
    • Industrial
    • Residential and Commercial
      • Power
        • Higher gas burn anticipated in lower pricing environment over the first half of 2016
        • Delay of Darlington nuclear refurbishment may decrease gas generation in the Northeast.
        • Western hydro outlook improves, but low reservoir levels may limit impact hydro generation.
        • More than 29 GW of nuclear outages are planned for spring refuelling season.
  • LNG
    • Sabine Pass
  • Regional
    • Northeast
      • Northeast basis production, and pipe
    • West
      • Aliso Canyon leak leads to record low SoCal inventories and may lead to further upside in SoCal Border futures.
    • Canada
    • Mexico

In this report there are 18 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Short term price outlook
    • Henry Hub price outlook
    • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Infrastructure
    • Supply-demand imbalance is about 2.5 bcfd tighter than normal
    • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Supply
    • Key supply metrics and indicators
    • Lower 48 production forecast
  • Demand
    • Leading indicators
    • Downward price revisions between December and January STO lead to greater power demand expectations
    • Demand: Table 1
    • California Reservoir levels
    • Daily nuclear generation
  • LNG
    • LNG feed gas expectations
  • Regional
    • SoCal storage activity since Aliso Canyon gas leak in late October
    • Regional: Image 2
    • SoCal Border futures react to potential Aliso Canyon shut-in
    • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
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