Commodity market report
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19 Pages

North America gas markets short-term outlook July 2016


North America gas markets short-term outlook July 2016

Report summary

Higher prices are welcome to producers but will allow coal to recapture some power generation market share. Weak injections mean that the storage surplus to the five-year average continues to be worked down. Yet several factors suggest weaker late-summer prices: stable US production, as efficiency gains preclude working down the DUC inventory; strong Canadian exports; a September dip in LNG feedgas; and a slightly lower expected August power demand on higher gas prices. Mexican exports and promising industrial demand may balance out those weaker factors, and we expect Henry Hub prices to trade closer to $2.50/mmbtu than to $3.00/mmbtu for the remainder of the injection season, barring continued higher temperatures. 

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • North America gas markets short-term outlook July 2016 PDF - 606.62 KB 19 Pages, 6 Tables, 9 Figures
  • Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 133.00 KB
  • Demand Detail.xls XLS - 781.00 KB
  • Industrial Index.xls XLS - 124.50 KB
  • LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 229.00 KB
  • NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 116.00 KB
  • Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 489.50 KB
  • Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 113.50 KB
  • Price Outlook.xls XLS - 136.00 KB
  • Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 150.50 KB
  • Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 326.00 KB
  • Supply Detail.xls XLS - 275.00 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • What will it take to bring back gas-directed rigs?
    • 2017 still looks bullish
      • Short term price outlook
      • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Infrastructure
    • Storage
  • Supply
  • Demand
    • Industrial
    • Economy
      • Leading indicators
    • Power
      • Summer demand gets a boost from weather
      • Regular losses of highly electric-intensive industrial power loads have passed, setting the stage for the oncoming wave of energy intensive demand
      • Fundamental power supply assumption changes since the previous forecast
  • LNG
  • Regional
    • Northeast
      • Pipeline build outlook
      • Pipeline outages and flows
      • Basis outlook
        • Basis outlook
        • West
        • Canada
        • Mexico

In this report there are 15 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • DUCs
    • Executive summary: Table 1
    • Henry Hub price outlook
    • Executive summary: Table 2
  • Infrastructure
    • Chart 1: SD imbalance is about 2.7 bcfd tighter than normal
    • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Supply
    • Key supply metrics and indicators
    • US rig activity vs. oil price volatility
    • Lower 48 dry gas production forecast
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
  • LNG
    • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Regional
    • Major project timelines as of FERC application*
    • Regional: Image 2
    • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
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