Commodity market report

North America gas markets short-term outlook July 2016

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Report summary

Higher prices are welcome to producers but will allow coal to recapture some power generation market share. Weak injections mean that the storage surplus to the five-year average continues to be worked down. Yet several factors suggest weaker late-summer prices: stable US production, as efficiency gains preclude working down the DUC inventory; strong Canadian exports; a September dip in LNG feedgas; and a slightly lower expected August power demand on higher gas prices. Mexican exports and promising industrial demand may balance out those weaker factors, and we expect Henry Hub prices to trade closer to $2.50/mmbtu than to $3.00/mmbtu for the remainder of the injection season, barring continued higher temperatures.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Basis Outlook.xls

    XLS 133.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand Detail.xls

    XLS 781.00 KB

  • Document

    Industrial Index.xls

    XLS 124.50 KB

  • Document

    LNG Detail incl Export.xls

    XLS 229.00 KB

  • Document

    NGL Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 116.00 KB

  • Document

    Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls

    XLS 489.50 KB

  • Document

    Power Demand Curve.xls

    XLS 113.50 KB

  • Document

    Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 136.00 KB

  • Document

    Storage Outlook.xls

    XLS 150.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply Demand Balances.xls

    XLS 326.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply Detail.xls

    XLS 275.00 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook July 2016

    PDF 606.62 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook July 2016

    ZIP 2.11 MB

Table of contents

    • What will it take to bring back gas-directed rigs?
      • Short term price outlook
      • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Storage
  • Supply
    • Industrial
      • Leading indicators
      • Summer demand gets a boost from weather
      • Regular losses of highly electric-intensive industrial power loads have passed, setting the stage for the oncoming wave of energy intensive demand
      • Fundamental power supply assumption changes since the previous forecast
  • LNG

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:


  • US rig activity vs. oil price volatility
  • Lower 48 dry gas production forecast
  • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • DUCs
  • Chart 1: SD imbalance is about 2.7 bcfd tighter than normal
  • Henry Hub price outlook
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Major project timelines as of FERC application*
  • Regional: Image 2


  • Key supply metrics and indicators
  • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Executive summary: Table 2
  • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)

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