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18 Pages

North America gas markets short-term outlook June 2016


North America gas markets short-term outlook June 2016

Report summary

Scorching summer temperatures have brought storage injections to the lowest June rate since 2000, one factor in what might be one of the most bullish months in recent history. A tighter supply-demand imbalance and higher power gas burn have flipped the question from whether storage congestion will re-emerge to how much more of the storage surplus will be whittled away—and at what price. Production is declining, and these weak drilling levels will result in a price spike to unsustainably high levels next year, averaging about $3.75 at Henry Hub as exports ramp up, Northeast supply remains constrained and associated gas production remains flat. 2018 will see a lower price, however, in order to balance out a subsequent accelerating supply picture. 

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • North America gas markets short-term outlook June 2016 PDF - 553.68 KB 18 Pages, 6 Tables, 8 Figures
  • Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 134.50 KB
  • Demand Detail.xls XLS - 796.50 KB
  • Industrial Index.xls XLS - 124.50 KB
  • LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 239.00 KB
  • NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 105.00 KB
  • Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 207.00 KB
  • Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 102.00 KB
  • Price Outlook.xls XLS - 135.50 KB
  • Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 144.00 KB
  • Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 324.00 KB
  • Supply Detail.xls XLS - 275.00 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Why has production been declining?
      • Prices rallying in 2017 before falling in 2018
  • Infrastructure
    • Storage
  • Supply
  • Demand
    • Industrial
  • LNG
  • Regional
    • Northeast
      • Pipeline build outlook
      • Pipeline outages and flows
      • Basis outlook
    • West
    • Canada
    • Mexico

In this report there are 14 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Assumed supply curtailments
    • Short term price outlook
    • Executive summary: Image 2
    • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Infrastructure
    • Chart 1: SD imbalance is more than 4 bcfd tighter than normal
    • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Supply
    • Key supply metrics and indicators
    • Lower 48 dry gas production forecast
  • Demand
    • Leading indicators
    • Demand: Image 2
  • LNG
    • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Regional
    • Basis outlook
    • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
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