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North America gas markets short-term outlook March 2018: mounting storage deficit keeps prices elevated

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22 March 2018

North America gas markets short-term outlook March 2018: mounting storage deficit keeps prices elevated

Report summary

The 93 bcf withdrawal last week was again demonstrative of a tighter than normal supply-demand balance, driven by a delayed supply growth and elevated power burns. Our end-of-season inventory estimate is 1,348 bcf, the lowest it has been since 2014. Consequently, we have revised up our summer strip, but power burns could strengthen in the wake of changing coal contracts, and the higher oil price could shifts production from dry-gas to liquids-rich sub-plays, resulting in more tempered production growth. Beyond injection season, the opening throttle on Northeast pipes unleashes supply that keeps the winter strip in check.

Table of contents

    • Beyond injection season: supply growth keeps our forward curve relatively flat
      • Short-term price outlook
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply
    • Industrial
    • Power
    • Meanwhile, Sabine Pass continues to operate relatively normally
    • Remainder of 2018
    • 2019
    • Northeast
      • Basis outlook
      • Pipeline build outlook
    • Canada
    • Mexico
      • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

  • Weather adjusted withdrawals 1.5 bcfd above normal
  • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Key supply metrics and indicators
  • Lower 48 dry production forecast
  • Impact to Henry Hub forecast relative to the previous STO
  • Russian strategy: base case versus market share scenario
  • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Pipeline maintenance
  • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Henry Hub price outlook
  • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Dominion South Basis
  • Basis outlook
  • Regional: Table 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Basis Outlook.xls

    XLS 129.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand Detail.xls

    XLS 697.00 KB

  • Document

    Industrial Index.xls

    XLS 124.00 KB

  • Document

    LNG Detail incl Export.xls

    XLS 224.50 KB

  • Document

    NGL Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 118.00 KB

  • Document

    Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls

    XLS 539.00 KB

  • Document

    Power Demand Curve.xls

    XLS 124.50 KB

  • Document

    Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 143.50 KB

  • Document

    Storage Outlook.xls

    XLS 156.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply Demand Balances.xls

    XLS 315.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply Detail.xlsx

    XLSX 213.82 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook March 2018: mounting storage deficit keeps prices elevated

    PDF 557.48 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook March 2018: mounting storage deficit keeps prices elevated

    ZIP 2.08 MB

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