Commodity market report
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19 Pages

North America gas markets short-term outlook May 2016

North America gas markets short-term outlook May 2016

Report summary

Based on higher power burns and lower production, Henry Hub prices look likely to strengthen steadily toward $2.50/mmbtu this injection season, and we believe the market won't test storage limits. In June, prices at the Henry Hub should remain relatively stable in the $2.00 to $2.25/mmbtu range with a normal weather average of $2.10/mmbtu. In the winter of 2016/2017, we expect prices to rise and hold strong through 2017, as delays in Northeast pipelines limit the extent to which low-cost Marcellus and Utica wells can meet growing gas demand outside the region, and while other plays offer attractive breakevens and returns, Lower 48 production is expected to decline until prices and thus cash flows return, and even then, the lag in rig and crew mobilizations mean that any supply growth will be weighted toward the back half of 2017.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • North America gas markets short-term outlook May 2016 PDF - 632.88 KB 19 Pages, 7 Tables, 9 Figures
  • Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 128.00 KB
  • Demand Detail.xls XLS - 755.00 KB
  • Industrial Index.xls XLS - 121.50 KB
  • LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 230.50 KB
  • NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 104.50 KB
  • Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 466.00 KB
  • Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 102.00 KB
  • Price Outlook.xls XLS - 135.00 KB
  • Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 142.50 KB
  • Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 314.50 KB
  • Supply Detail.xls XLS - 265.00 KB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Summer support
    • 2017
  • Infrastructure
    • Storage
  • Supply
  • Demand
    • Industrial
    • Residential and Commercial
    • Power
      • Weather supports y-o-y generation levels and saves gas burn from precipitous year-end drop due to rising gas prices
      • Renewables inhibit ability for gas to mitigate losses
      • WECC hydro impact
      • Regional shifts in gas burn
  • LNG
  • Regional
    • Northeast
      • Pipeline build outlook
      • Tetco explosion and outage
        • TETCO's Delmont Compressor Station flow and its effect on Tetco M-3 prices
      • Basis outlook
    • West
    • Canada
    • Mexico

In this report there are 16 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Short term price outlook
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Infrastructure
    • Supply-demand imbalance is more than 2.7 bcfd tighter than normal
    • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Supply
    • Key supply metrics and indicators
    • Lower 48 dry gas production forecast
  • Demand
    • Leading indicators
    • 2016 forecast non-cogen generation versus 2015 actual
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Change in gas burn versus previous STO
  • LNG
    • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Regional
    • Basis outlook
    • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
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