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North America gas markets short-term outlook November 2017: Supply growth threatens sustained price rally

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21 November 2017

North America gas markets short-term outlook November 2017: Supply growth threatens sustained price rally

Report summary

The chilly start of the winter widened out the storage deficit and led to a price rally in early November, but we have not adjusted our view of the winter strip as the risks around our price view remain relatively balanced. We believe the reason bulls continue to stay hopeful is because natural gas is the marginal source of generation in the US power grid during cold winter weeks. However, the supply-demand imbalance is now more dependent on wind generation than it has been in the past. Weeks with high degree day totals and low wind generation are what bulls dream of this winter. However, our extremely bullish production outlook caps much excitement over winter power burns. Gas production has increased by 2.8 bcfd between US and Canada from last month and the uptick is far from over. We are also watching a few market drivers closely as they could have an upside impact on our price forecast.  

Table of contents

    • This winter: Northeast supply seems more certain even as producers focus on capital disciplines
    • 2018 and beyond: Midstream supports more production growth along with Alpine High
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply
    • Power
    • Winter Risks
    • 2018 and 2019
    • Northeast
    • Canada
    • Mexico

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Weather adjusted injections 2 bcfd below normal
  • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • We have summarized the remaining themes below:
  • Short-term price outlook
  • Henry Hub price outlook
  • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • FERC certificates for Northeast pipeline projects in 2017: scheduled vs issued
  • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Basis Outlook.xls

    XLS 131.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand Detail.xls

    XLS 697.50 KB

  • Document

    Industrial Index.xls

    XLS 124.00 KB

  • Document

    LNG Detail incl Export.xls

    XLS 228.50 KB

  • Document

    NGL Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 118.50 KB

  • Document

    Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls

    XLS 538.50 KB

  • Document

    Power Demand Curve.xls

    XLS 124.50 KB

  • Document

    Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 136.50 KB

  • Document

    Storage Outlook.xls

    XLS 156.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply Demand Balances.xls

    XLS 315.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply Detail.xlsx

    XLSX 214.92 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook November 2017: Supply growth threatens sustained price rally

    PDF 436.91 KB

  • Document

    North America gas markets short-term outlook November 2017: Supply growth threatens sustained price rally

    ZIP 1.97 MB

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