The winter strip has been revised up from the previous short term update although it is still lower than the current NYMEX. However there are a few things we're watching that could bring upside: Rig additions in the Northeast might be lower than expected if producers draw from DUC wells Canadian imports might disappoint due to lower capital guidance from producers Power burns could surprise the market as power demand shows resilience and hydro returns to normal. In 2018 expect supply to surge as 6.5 bcfd of new Northeast pipeline capacity comes online. The power market will offer demand support from coal retirements and lower levels of contracted coal. We see even more supply coming online in 2019 but delays in US export LNG facilities will make it difficult to take advantage of global demand.