Commodity Market Report
North America gas short-term outlook: A warm closeout to a mild winter
Report summary
February follows January as yet another milder-than-normal, peak-winter month. Early forecasts into March do not provide a significantly colder view either. As a result, the natural gas storage surplus is growing and putting further pressure on Henry Hub prices in the near term at below $2.50/mmbtu. However, a steep contango still supplies prices greater than $4/mmbtu in the next winter’s peak months. Can this dynamic persist? As we closeout peak winter, North American gas markets ask: • Are there signs of higher gas burns at recently reduced gas prices? • Have producers signalled for drastic measures to limit supply? • Will currently oversupplied markets rebalance in 2024?
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