Commodity market report
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18 Pages

North America gas short-term outlook August 2017: strong fundamentals, weak weather continue


North America gas short-term outlook August 2017: strong fundamentals, weak weather continue

Report summary

The market continues to be defined by strong fundamentals and weak weather. Assuming normal weather, watch for a price rally in Q4, toward $3.25/mmbtu. But strong supply growth in 2018 will put downward pressure on prices, driven by a continued drilling recovery, especially in the Permian, where there is initial evidence of higher possible gas-to-oil ratios; a Northeast supply response to growing pipeline completions; and a recovery in the Montney. Demand in 2018 is weakened off the back of Cameron LNG's delay. In 2019, weakening global markets will mean to LNG shut-ins, but prices will stabilize at a range that is competitive with US power generation, leading to volatile flows and demand levels but stable prices.


What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • North America gas short-term outlook August 2017: strong fundamentals, weak weather continue PDF - 472.64 KB 18 Pages, 6 Tables, 8 Figures
  • Basis Outlook.xls XLS - 132.50 KB
  • Demand Detail.xls XLS - 697.00 KB
  • Industrial Index.xls XLS - 124.00 KB
  • LNG Detail incl Export.xls XLS - 226.50 KB
  • NGL Price Outlook.xls XLS - 117.50 KB
  • Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls XLS - 510.50 KB
  • Power Demand Curve.xls XLS - 124.50 KB
  • Price Outlook.xls XLS - 137.00 KB
  • Storage Outlook.xls XLS - 155.50 KB
  • Supply Demand Balances.xls XLS - 315.50 KB
  • Supply Detail.xls XLS - 288.50 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Price strength in Q4—if weather is normal
    • 2018: all about supply
    • 2019: Onset of US LNG shut-ins
  • Infrastructure
    • Storage
  • Supply
    • Implied prices on hedges added during Q1 2017
  • Demand
    • Industrial
  • LNG
    • Current flows
    • Delays
    • Europe in 2018 and 2019
  • Regional
    • Northeast
      • Basis outlook
    • Pipeline build outlook
    • Canada
    • Mexico

In this report there are 14 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • WoodMac supply-demand balance (6MMA)
    • WoodMac degree day index
    • Short-term price outlook
    • Henry Hub price outlook
    • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Infrastructure
    • Weather adjusted injections are 3.7 bcfd below normal
    • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Supply
    • Key supply metrics and indicators
    • Supply: Image 1
  • Demand
  • LNG
    • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Regional
    • Basis outlook and destinations for Northeast supply
    • Regional: Image 2
    • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
    • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
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