Commodity market report

North America gas short-term outlook August 2017: strong fundamentals, weak weather continue

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Report summary

The market continues to be defined by strong fundamentals and weak weather. Assuming normal weather watch for a price rally in Q4 toward $3.25/mmbtu. But strong supply growth in 2018 will put downward pressure on prices driven by a continued drilling recovery especially in the Permian where there is initial evidence of higher possible gas to oil ratios; a Northeast supply response to growing pipeline completions; and a recovery in the Montney. Demand in 2018 is weakened off the back of Cameron LNG's delay. In 2019 weakening global markets will mean to LNG shut ins but prices will stabilize at a range that is competitive with US power generation leading to volatile flows and demand levels but stable prices.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Basis Outlook.xls

    XLS 132.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand Detail.xls

    XLS 697.00 KB

  • Document

    Industrial Index.xls

    XLS 124.00 KB

  • Document

    LNG Detail incl Export.xls

    XLS 226.50 KB

  • Document

    NGL Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 117.50 KB

  • Document

    Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls

    XLS 510.50 KB

  • Document

    Power Demand Curve.xls

    XLS 124.50 KB

  • Document

    Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 137.00 KB

  • Document

    Storage Outlook.xls

    XLS 155.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply Demand Balances.xls

    XLS 315.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply Detail.xls

    XLS 288.50 KB

  • Document

    North America gas short-term outlook August 2017: strong fundamentals, weak weather continue

    PDF 472.64 KB

  • Document

    North America gas short-term outlook August 2017: strong fundamentals, weak weather continue

    ZIP 1.95 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply
  • Demand
  • LNG
  • Regional

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

Images

  • WoodMac supply-demand balance (6MMA)
  • WoodMac degree day index
  • Henry Hub price outlook
  • Weather adjusted injections are 3.7 bcfd below normal
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Basis outlook and destinations for Northeast supply
  • Regional: Image 2

Tables

  • Key supply metrics and indicators
  • Short-term price outlook
  • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)

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