Commodity Market Report

North America gas short-term outlook August 2017: strong fundamentals, weak weather continue

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Report summary

The market continues to be defined by strong fundamentals and weak weather. Assuming normal weather, watch for a price rally in Q4, toward $3.25/mmbtu. But strong supply growth in 2018 will put downward pressure on prices, driven by a continued drilling recovery, especially in the Permian, where there is initial evidence of higher possible gas-to-oil ratios; a Northeast supply response to growing pipeline completions; and a recovery in the Montney. Demand in 2018 is weakened off the back of Cameron LNG's delay. In 2019, weakening global markets will mean to LNG shut-ins, but prices will stabilize at a range that is competitive with US power generation, leading to volatile flows and demand levels but stable prices.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Basis Outlook.xls

    XLS 132.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand Detail.xls

    XLS 697.00 KB

  • Document

    Industrial Index.xls

    XLS 124.00 KB

  • Document

    LNG Detail incl Export.xls

    XLS 226.50 KB

  • Document

    NGL Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 117.50 KB

  • Document

    Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls

    XLS 510.50 KB

  • Document

    Power Demand Curve.xls

    XLS 124.50 KB

  • Document

    Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 137.00 KB

  • Document

    Storage Outlook.xls

    XLS 155.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply Demand Balances.xls

    XLS 315.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply Detail.xls

    XLS 288.50 KB

  • Document

    North America gas short-term outlook August 2017: strong fundamentals, weak weather continue

    PDF 472.64 KB

  • Document

    North America gas short-term outlook August 2017: strong fundamentals, weak weather continue

    ZIP 1.95 MB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Key supply metrics and indicators
  • Short-term price outlook
  • US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • US storage inventories (bcf)
  • Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
  • Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)

Images

  • WoodMac supply-demand balance (6MMA)
  • WoodMac degree day index
  • Henry Hub price outlook
  • Weather adjusted injections are 3.7 bcfd below normal
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Feedgas projections by terminal
  • Basis outlook and destinations for Northeast supply
  • Regional: Image 2

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