North America gas short-term outlook December 2018: A "lump of coal" for gas bulls

Gas bulls are receiving a lump of coal in their stockings this year as a forecasted mild second half of December negates the surge in prices seen as a result of early November cold. Fears that we will run out of gas by the end of winter seem to have abated, absent a return of colder than normal weather forecasts. Production outperformance, increasing competition in the power generation stack and a loosening weekly supply-demand imbalance all contributed to our slight decrease of the remainder of winter strip prices. Questions remain, however. How will the recent fall in oil prices affect production schedules for next year? And how will further Mexican pipeline delays affect exports south of the border?