Commodity Market Report
North America gas short-term outlook July 2019: back from the abyss? Slowing storage injections expected to revive Henry Hub
Report summary
After the July NYMEX Henry Hub contract settled about a dime under our forecast of $2.30/mmbtu, hotter weather post-Independence day led prices on a mini-rally, pushing the August contract close to $2.50. However, weather once again proved fickle, and cooler late July weather forecasts have spiralled down to the abyss, under $2.25. Yet a revival of Henry Hub may be in store. Record power burns and LNG exports are set to continue to slow down the pace of record storage injections that have so far pressured Henry Hub, as long as weather cooperates, and forecasts are for hotter than normal so far.
Table of contents
- The heat-induced $0.25/mmbtu mini-rally post-Independence Day has failed to set Henry Hub free as fading heat toward the end of July spiraled prices back down to the abyss at <$2.25/mmbtu.
- Northeast production growth restarts, while Waha escapes negativity.
- Key fundamental signposts that provide risk to our price outlook include:
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