North America gas short-term outlook September 2017: Haynesville production weighs on 2018 prices Report

Commodity Market Report 22 September 2017

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Report summary

Exceptionally mild weather and hurricanes decreased September demand. And while it remains tighter than normal, the supply-demand balance has begun to loosen. Production growth is strong in the Permian and we expect the same in the Northeast as new pipeline capacity comes online. And we have upgraded our Haynesville production outlook due to chokes that are improving well performance--our 2018 price outlook now averages $2.85/mmbtu, albeit with some upside if winter weather is cold or if drilling continues to soften.

Executive summary
- Exceptionally mild weather continues in September
- Winter: emerging La Nina forecast
Infrastructure
- Storage
Supply
- Key supply metrics and indicators
Demand
- Industrial
- Power
LNG
- Hurricane Harvey
- Outlook
Regional
- Basis outlook
- Pipeline build outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

Last 12 months weather
Supply-demand balance
Short-term price outlook

Henry Hub price outlook
US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
Chart 1: Weather adjusted injections 0.2 bcfd below normal
Supply: Table 1
Implied prices on hedges added during Q1 2017
Twelve-month industrial demand forecast
Feedgas projections by terminal
Basis outlook and destinations for Northeast supply
Regional: Image 2
Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)

What's included

This report contains:

Basis Outlook.xls

XLS 133.00 KB
Demand Detail.xls

XLS 698.00 KB
Industrial Index.xls

XLS 124.00 KB

LNG Detail incl Export.xls

XLS 226.50 KB
NGL Price Outlook.xls

XLS 117.50 KB
Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls

XLS 511.00 KB
Power Demand Curve.xls

XLS 124.50 KB
Price Outlook.xls

XLS 137.00 KB
Storage Outlook.xls

XLS 155.50 KB
Supply Demand Balances.xls

XLS 313.00 KB
Supply Detail.xls

XLS 289.00 KB
North America gas short-term outlook September 2017: Haynesville production weighs on 2018 prices

PDF 483.07 KB
North America gas short-term outlook September 2017: Haynesville production weighs on 2018 prices

ZIP 1.96 MB