North America gas strategic planning outlook Report

Commodity Market Report 31 March 2023

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Report summary

One year after the Russia/Ukraine war began, Henry Hub gas prices have been cut in half. Yet, the trajectory for gas market expansion in North America remains firm, carving a pathway for strengthening prices in the long term. Though tempered from our previous update, North America continues to be at the center of the global LNG trade, fueling growth throughout the forecast. An upgrade to Permian associated gas keeps downward pressure on near-term prices until LNG export projects come online in the late 2020s, adding 13 bcfd in demand and pushing Henry Hub towards $4/mmbtu by 2030. In total, LNG exports are set to triple by 2050. How does North America LNG exports change over the forecast period? Will tax incentives sustain aggressive renewable generation build out? How will the energy transition support natural gas demand? Where are new pipeline projects needed to de-bottleneck supply?

March 2023
- Near-term (2023-2030): associated gas supply growth dominates
- Medium-term (2031-2040): LNG exports slow down while associated gas supply peaks
- Long-term (2041-2050): Stronger domestic demand offsets weaker LNG exports outlook
- March 2022
- Expansion: 2022-2033
- Stagnation: 2034-2043
- Contraction: 2044-2050