North American LNG: can global markets keep up with North America's budding gas exports?
The 2017 H1 North America gas long-term outlook will include a series of reports taking a deeper look into the key drivers from our latest forecast. This report will explore our LNG capacity build-out and factors in utilization. For more information on the long-term outlook, please see our 2017 H1 North America gas long-term outlook report series. About 70 mmtpa of LNG export capacity is coming online in North America from 2016-2020. While we expect LNG demand worldwide to rise, it will not keep pace with growing export capacity. The supply glut will lead to depressed global prices and reduced utilization before demand catches up around 2023-2024, at which time a second wave of US LNG will compete with global projects to meet that rising demand. We discuss this as well as risks to our forecast, including implications of higher utilization.