Commodity market report
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11 Pages

North American LNG: can global markets keep up with North America's budding gas exports?


North American LNG: can global markets keep up with North America's budding gas exports?

Report summary

The 2017 H1 North America gas long-term outlook will include a series of reports taking a deeper look into the key drivers from our latest forecast. This report will explore our LNG capacity build-out and factors in utilization. For more information on the long-term outlook, please see our 2017 H1 North America gas long-term outlook report series.

About 70 mmtpa of LNG export capacity is coming online in  North America from 2016-2020. While we expect LNG demand worldwide to rise, it will not keep pace with growing export capacity. The supply glut will lead to depressed global prices and reduced utilization before demand catches up around 2023-2024, at which time a second wave of US LNG will compete with global projects to meet that rising demand. We discuss this as well as risks to our forecast, including implications of higher utilization.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • North American LNG: can global markets keep up with North America's budding gas exports? PDF - 413.33 KB 11 Pages, 1 Tables, 9 Figures
  • North American LNG: can global markets keep up with North America's budding gas exports? PDF - 113.25 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Global demand growth doesn’t keep pace with new US capacity
    • Asia
    • Middle East
    • South America
      • Emerging markets in the Atlantic Basin
    • Europe
  • Near-term build – fastest capacity addition in a single country ever
  • Risk
    • Operational challenges in feedgas and LNG trading
    • Inefficient markets mean every offtaker is uniquely positioned
    • Strategic considerations
    • Russia in Europe – upside risk for US LNG if Russia goes for price
    • If US LNG runs full, what effect does that have in North America?
  • Second-wave LNG

In this report there are 10 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Global demand growth doesn’t keep pace with new US capacity
    • Global Gas Demand
    • LNG Demand by Region
  • Near-term build – fastest capacity addition in a single country ever
    • North American capacity additions at time of H1 2017 update
    • Range of cash costs delivered into Europe
    • Utilization vs capacity
  • Risk
    • Contracts by category
    • Contracts by liquefaction plant, 2020
    • Henry Hub price change
  • Second-wave LNG
    • LNG demand and supply
    • Second-wave LNG
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