Commodity Market Report

North American LNG: can global markets keep up with North America's budding gas exports?

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12 September 2017

North American LNG: can global markets keep up with North America's budding gas exports?

Report summary

The 2017 H1 North America gas long-term outlook will include a series of reports taking a deeper look into the key drivers from our latest forecast. This report will explore our LNG capacity build-out and factors in utilization. For more information on the long-term outlook, please see our 2017 H1 North America gas long-term outlook report series. About 70 mmtpa of LNG export capacity is coming online in  North America from 2016-2020. While we expect LNG demand worldwide to rise, it will not keep pace with growing export capacity. The supply glut will lead to depressed global prices and reduced utilization before demand catches up around 2023-2024, at which time a second wave of US LNG will compete with global projects to meet that rising demand. We discuss this as well as risks to our forecast, including implications of higher utilization.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Asia
    • Middle East
    • South America
      • Emerging markets in the Atlantic Basin
    • Europe
  • Near-term build – fastest capacity addition in a single country ever
    • Operational challenges in feedgas and LNG trading
    • Inefficient markets mean every offtaker is uniquely positioned
    • Strategic considerations
    • Russia in Europe – upside risk for US LNG if Russia goes for price
    • If US LNG runs full, what effect does that have in North America?
  • Second-wave LNG

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Global Gas Demand
  • LNG Demand by Region
  • North American capacity additions at time of H1 2017 update
  • Range of cash costs delivered into Europe
  • Utilization vs capacity
  • LNG demand and supply
  • Second-wave LNG
  • Contracts by category
  • Contracts by liquefaction plant, 2020
  • Henry Hub price change

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    North American LNG: can global markets keep up with North America's budding gas exports?

    PDF 413.33 KB

  • Document

    North American LNG: can global markets keep up with North America's budding gas exports?

    PDF 113.25 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 75.24 KB

  • Document

    Global demand growth doesn’t keep pace with new US capacity

    PDF 118.05 KB

  • Document

    Risk

    PDF 116.13 KB

  • Document

    Second-wave LNG

    PDF 113.56 KB