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Northeast basis: Daily demand patterns point to sustained New England premiums over New York


Northeast basis: Daily demand patterns point to sustained New England premiums over New York

Report summary

Basis in almost all historically premium markets is falling, including Chicago, the West, and especially Pennsylvania points like Dominion. The exception is New England, with limited pipeline capacity and declining LNG imports. Last winter, New England pipelines were fully utilized on a 35-degree day, versus 20 degrees in previous years, sending basis to historic highs despite normal weather. And recently, the January Algonquin contract shot up from $8/mmbtu to more than $12/mmbtu. Last...

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Northeast basis: Daily demand patterns point to sustained New England premiums over New York PDF - 620.96 KB 10 Pages, 0 Tables, 6 Figures
  • Northeast basis outlook.xlsx XLSX - 143.53 KB

Description

This Gas Markets Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For participants, suppliers and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.

We provide detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive Summary
  • Winter 2012-’13: A sign of things to come in the Northeast?
  • This winter: Deep Panuke and Spectra pipeline loosen Northeast markets
  • Medium term: Markets tighten, AIM project provides temporary relief
    • Probable fundamental changes
    • Possible pipeline capacity into New England
    • Further upside risk: Brayton Point retirement
    • Downside risk: Oil and LNG prices?
  • Long term: Major pipeline capacity assumed
    • Alternate paths: What if power markets don't support pipeline build?
      • Power market resolution
      • Small-scale LNG?
      • Marcellus producer push?
      • Eastern Canada shale?
    • Key uncertainties and further analysis

In this report there are 6 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive Summary
  • Winter 2012-’13: A sign of things to come in the Northeast?
    • Chart 1. New England pipeline utilization and basis
    • Chart 2. Recent winter weather distributions and constraint thresholds
  • This winter: Deep Panuke and Spectra pipeline loosen Northeast markets
    • Chart 3. Basis outlook: Average day versus monthly average of daily basis
  • Medium term: Markets tighten, AIM project provides temporary relief
    • Chart 4. New England fundamentals change vs winter 2012-‘13
    • Chart 5. New York fundamentals change vs winter 2012-‘13
  • Long term: Major pipeline capacity assumed
    • Chart 6. New England and New York basis outlook
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