Commodity Market Report

Thailand gas and LNG H2 2018 summary

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23 January 2019

Thailand gas and LNG H2 2018 summary

Report summary

The aggressive minimum production levels on Erawan and Bongkot post-expiry may have temporarily reversed the tide of declining domestic gas production in Thailand. Come 2023/2024, Erawan and Bongkot could collectively pump in about 1.5 bcfd of gas into Thailand, causing a relatively significant upward revision on our supply side forecast from the previous update. We expect this to reduce the longer-term growth of LNG demand and cap LNG demand at below 15 mmtpa from 2028 to 2032. PTTEP's aggressive US$1.6 billion investment into maintaining production levels and developing Myanmar's gas resources poses additional downside risk to LNG demand. However, all is not bleak for Thailand's growing LNG market. A draft Power Development Plan sees some coal plants removed with a bigger share for gas. There has also been movements on the third-party regulation on the regas infrastructure front, although formal arrangements are likely to be pending official LNG SPAs.

Table of contents

  • Market background
  • PSC for Erawan and Bongkot awarded to PTTEP, strong minimum production levels set to put a cap on LNG demand in medium term
  • 21st licensing roundlikely after general election, expected to revive exploration interest
  • Gas demand in power robust driven by new gas capacity, while coal loses favour in new tentative PDP
  • PTT and PTTEP sees massive investment in near term to boost gas market, both domestic and abroad
  • Thailand moves in on LNG trade and bunkering
  • TPA regulations in shape, EGAT's first venture into LNG market
  • More companies interested to enter the newly liberated natural gas/LNG market

Tables and charts

This report includes 2 images and tables including:

  • Thailand LNG Demand
  • Key changes to analysis from the H1 2018 publication

What's included

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