Commodity Market Report

United Kingdom gas and LNG markets long-term outlook 2019

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12 September 2019

United Kingdom gas and LNG markets long-term outlook 2019

Report summary

The UK's diminishing domestic production resulted in piped imports rising to record highs of 43 bcm in 2018. In 2019 we have seen a rapid increase in LNG supply up to 25 bcm as global oversupply resulted in more deliveries to the UK. The closure of Rough storage, has significantly increased reliance on imports at key times. The NBP price has fallen significantly during 2019. We forecast that the monthly average will be $4.8/mmbtu, compared to $8.0/mmbtu in 2018, as the long- expected wave of new LNG supply continues to hit the European market. Brexit has been delayed until the end of October 2019 at the earliest, so its impact has yet to be felt in the UK gas market. However, we believe its initial impact will be limited. The UK’s Committee on Climate Change, recommends a new emissions target for the UK: net-zero greenhouse gases by 2050. The report urges government to legislate for this to happen as soon as possible via a new Climate Change Act.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

  • Gas production profile
  • Key Infrastructure
  • Import capacity
  • Export capacity
  • Storage capacity
  • Supply-demand gap
  • Gas and LNG flows into the UK
  • Gas prices in pence per therm
  • Gas prices in dollar per mmbtu
  • NBP traded volumes and churn ratios
  • Historic pipeline imports
  • Contracted pipeline imports
  • Historic LNG imports
  • Contracted LNG imports
  • Historic pipeline exports
  • Contracted pipeline exports
  • Long-run delivered cost of gas to the UK
  • National Grid entry capacity charges 2018-2020
  • National Grid exit capacity charges 2018-2020
  • National Grid entry and exit commodity charges 2018-2020
  • Domestic gas suppliers market Q1 2019 (share of customers)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    United Kingdom_gas_markets_long-term_outlook_H1_2019.xlsm

    XLSM 543.94 KB

  • Document

    United Kingdom gas and LNG markets long-term outlook 2019

    ZIP 2.42 MB

  • Document

    United Kingdom gas and LNG markets long-term outlook 2019

    ZIP 2.87 MB

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