Commodity Market Report

United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

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20 September 2016

United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

Our gas demand outlook in the power sector had been adjusted upward from 2017 to the mid 2020s, taking into account the greater loss of coal fired generation and a significantly lower price forecast for NBP to 2023.

Table of contents

    • Key changes and recent trends
      • Gas demand supported by power sector, but long-term decline still expected
      • Higher LNG imports counter declining indigenous production
      • Economics of coal to gas switching still underpin UK and European spot prices
    • Power
    • Non-power demand
    • Residential
    • Commercial
    • Industrial
    • Transport and Losses
    • Production growth continued to 2016
    • ...but delays and postponements hamper sustained increased in offshore production
    • Despite government support shale gas exploration has seen slow progession
    • Gas infrastructure
    • LNG infrastructure
    • Pipeline infrastructure
    • Storage infrastructure
    • Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Piped contracts
    • LNG imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • LNG contracts
    • Gas exports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Export contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Tariffs for transportation
      • Uniform network code and charges
      • Capacity charges
      • Commodity charges
      • Storage access
    • NBP gas price development
      • Annual gas prices (real 2016)
    • Trading at NBP

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • Gas demand by sector 2010 to 2035
  • Key infrastructure
  • Import capacity
  • Export capacity
  • Supply demand gap
  • Gas flows into the UK
  • Long run delivered costs of gas to the UK
  • Gas production profile - 2010 to 2035
  • LNG regasification
  • Historical piped imports
  • UK contracted piped imports
  • Contracts: Image 3
  • Historical LNG imports
  • UK contracted LNG imports
  • Historical piped exports
  • UK contracted piped exports
  • UK gas price forecast
  • Gas flows into the UK
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2
  • Prices: Image 3
  • Prices: Image 4
  • Prices: Image 5

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016.xls

    XLS 1.41 MB

  • Document

    United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    PDF 980.81 KB

  • Document

    United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    ZIP 1.27 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 109.50 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 94.78 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 115.76 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 127.60 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 88.66 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 88.88 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 663.74 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 664.04 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 119.15 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 117.39 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 103.54 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 103.09 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 111.81 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 110.36 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 107.94 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 125.37 KB

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