Commodity market report
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40 Pages

United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014


United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

Despite some upside from power, overall 2014 gas demand is forecast to decrease 7% against 2013 levels. As oil prices remain weak, we expect NBP spot prices to be supported by the switching cost of coal to gas in the power sector. We continue to anticipate an oversupplied market around 2020 before prices recover in the longer term as Europe's import requirement grows.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 1.08 MB 40 Pages, 6 Tables, 46 Figures
  • EGAPS UK Gas H2 2014.xls XLS - 1.40 MB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Recent Trends
    • Short/Mid term outlook summary (2015- 2017)
    • Long term outlook summary (2018- 2035)
    • Demand
    • Supply
  • Economic outlook
    • Q3 2014 Economic indicators (2005-2035)
  • Market structure
    • Storage and LNG System Operators
    • Supply/wholesale
    • Supply/retail
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key offices
    • Key targets
    • Unconventional gas supply
    • Electricity Market Reform
    • Support for renewables
    • Carbon price floor
    • Capacity market
  • Demand
    • Recent events and short term outlook
    • Forecast summary
      • Gas demand by sector 2005 to 2035
  • Supply
    • First rise in gas production in ten years expected in 2014 and growth sustained through to 2018
    • Indigenous gas production profile (2010 to 2035)
  • Infrastructure
    • Existing gas infrastructure
  • Contracts
    • Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Contracts
    • LNG imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • LNG contracts
    • Gas exports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Export contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply demand gap
    • Gas flows into the UK
    • LNG import flows
    • Piped export flows
  • Costs
    • Long run delivered costs of gas to the UK
  • Prices
    • NBP gas price development
      • Annual gas prices (real 2014)
    • Trading at NBP
      • Consumer price
  • Margins
    • Household sector
    • Industrial sector

In this report there are 52 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • UK gas price forecast
    • Gas flows into UK
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Table 1
    • GDP forecast - UK
  • Market structure
    • UK Production Gas Suppliers' Market Share in 2012
    • UK Gas Suppliers' Market Share in 2012
    • Domestic Gas Suppliers' Market 2012 (number of customers)
    • Non-Domestic Gas Suppliers' Market Share 2012 (number of customers)
  • Policy and regulation
    • Policy and regulation: Table 1
    • Policy and regulation: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Demand: Image 3
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Existing import capacity
    • Existing export capacity
    • Existing Infrastructure - Gas Storage (volume in mcm)
    • Forecast import capacity
    • Forecast export capacity
    • Planned gas storage (Volume in mcm)
  • Contracts
    • Historical piped imports
    • UK contracted piped imports
    • Contracts: Image 3
    • Historical LNG imports
    • UK contracted LNG imports
    • Historical piped exports
    • UK contracted piped exports
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Norway flows to UK by entry point
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 8
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 9
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 10
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 11
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 12
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 13
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 14
  • Costs
    • Costs: Image 1
    • Entry capacity charges 2014 to 2016
    • Exit capacity charges 2013/2014
    • Costs: Table 3
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Development of gas trading in the UK
    • Historical consumer prices (2007-2013)
  • Margins
    • Household sector gross margins (2007-2013)
    • Household sector cost breakdown 2008-2012
    • Industrial sector gross margins (2007-2013)
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