Economic activity, temperature and coal to gas competition will continue to influence gas demand over the short-term. Continued growth in renewable capacity and an increase in nuclear generation capacity will limit gas demand in the power sector post 2024. Furthermore, a limited scope for coal to gas switching, alongside the switch to more efficient CCGT plants, will result in lower usage in the power sector and add to the long-term decline of gas demand in non-power sectors. Total UK gas demand is forecast to decline at an average rate of 0.4% a year from 2015 to 2035.
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Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.
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United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H2 2015
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