Commodity Market Report

United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H2 2017

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09 May 2018

United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H2 2017

Report summary

The UK's ability to safeguard its security of gas supply is diminishing as domestic production declines. Indigenous production fell in 2017 after a brief period of growth and piped imports rose to record highs of 40 bcm. Thus far, LNG has not featured as strongly within the supply mix with imports falling in 2017. We expect increased LNG supply competition into 2020 and this will put pressure on prices with NBP dropping to US$4.2/mmbtu (compared to averages of US$5.8/mmbtu in 2017).

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Gas demand by sector 2010 to 2035
    • Production decline in 2017 after brief period of growth
    • ...as delays and postponements hamper sustained increase in offshore production
    • Despite government support shale gas exploration has seen slow progress
    • Gas infrastructure
    • LNG infrastructure
    • Pipeline infrastructure
    • Storage infrastructure
    • Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Piped contracts
    • LNG imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • LNG contracts
    • Gas exports: historical flows and contracts
      • Export contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Tariffs for transportation
      • Uniform network code and charges
      • Capacity charges
      • Commodity charges
      • Storage access
    • NBP gas price development
      • Annual gas prices (real 2017)

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

  • UK gas price forecast
  • Gas flows into the UK
  • Key infrastructure
  • Supply demand gap
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Gas production profile - 2010 to 2035
  • LNG regasification
  • Historical piped imports
  • UK contracted piped imports
  • Historical LNG imports
  • UK contracted LNG imports
  • Historical piped exports
  • UK contracted piped exports
  • Prices: Image 1

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H2 2017.xlsm

    XLSM 497.71 KB

  • Document

    United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H2 2017

    PDF 3.48 MB

  • Document

    United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H2 2017

    ZIP 3.91 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 90.57 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 111.72 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 88.71 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 3.21 MB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 116.82 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 102.98 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 79.47 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 107.18 KB