Commodity market report
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55 Pages

United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014


United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014

Report summary

A record-setting cold winter provided welcome price support for North American gas producers, and unexpected pain for gas and power end-users. Yet despite the old-school heating season, the themes defining North American gas markets remain unchanged. 

What's included?

This report includes 6 file(s)

  • United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 3.31 MB 55 Pages, 2 Tables, 53 Figures
  • NAGS LTV Demand Breakout Spring 2014.xls XLS - 2.74 MB
  • NAGS LTV Infrastructure and Storage Spring 2014.xls XLS - 283.00 KB
  • NAGS LTV New Industrial Capacity Spring 2014.xls XLS - 1.28 MB
  • NAGS LTV Supply and Demand Spring 2014.xls XLS - 1.81 MB
  • NAGS LTV Price Outlook Spring 2014.xls XLS - 779.00 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Spring 2014 long-term outlook
    • Policy Influence
  • Prices
    • The next three years
    • 2018-2022
  • Supply
    • Wood Mackenzie's upstream service onshore US capital spending outlook
    • Marcellus shale
    • Utica shale
    • Map of sub-play Marcellus and Utica areas with production outlook
    • Eagle Ford shale
    • Haynesville Shale
    • Short-term outlook
    • Post-2020 developments
  • Demand
    • Gas demand overview
    • Residential and commercial
    • Industrial
      • Ammonia/urea
      • Methanol
      • Petrochemicals
      • Iron and steel
      • Gas-to-liquids
      • Other/generic projects
      • GDP-based growth
    • Natural gas vehicles and marine bunkering
    • Power
      • Gas consumption
      • Power-sector gas consumption
      • Load growth
      • GDP and load growth
      • Environmental policy
      • Capacity changes
      • Displacement and utilization
      • Gas price changes
      • Regional outlook
  • Trade
    • Piped imports
      • Canada
      • Mexico
    • LNG exports
      • US LNG export outlook
      • Regulatory process
      • FERC Construction Permit
      • Export capacity
      • Alaska LNG
      • Contracts
  • Infrastructure
    • Introduction
    • Northeast
    • Southeast
    • Gulf Coast
    • Mid-Continent and Permian
      • Mid-Continent and Permian basis outlook
    • Midwest
      • Midwest demand by supply area
    • West
    • Major drivers of our basis outlook from the Rockies to the south and southwest are:

In this report there are 55 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Demand growth by type
    • Export and domestic demand growth
  • Prices
    • Relative gas, coal (heat rate adjusted) and global gas prices
    • Marginal play and price
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Change in regional production volumes and key gas plays
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Gulf Coast regional production by play
    • Mid-Continent production by type
    • Rockies production by type
    • Gas drilling by rig type
    • Change in drilling days for key gas plays
    • Change in well cost, drilling times, and lateral lengths from 2014
  • Demand
    • GDP outlook
    • US demand growth (vs 2013)
    • US gas cost advantage
    • Demand: Image 4
    • US cumulative industrial growth (vs 2013)
    • US likely industrial projects by sector (vs 2013)
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Demand: Image 8
    • Wood Mackenzie forecast carbon emission rates versus EPA target paths
    • US generation capacity changes versus 2013
    • Demand: Image 11
    • Demand: Image 12
    • Power-sector gas demand growth by census region versus 2013
  • Trade
    • Pipeline flow forecast to and from the US
    • Growth of piped exports to Mexico
    • Key export infrastructure
    • Regulatory status of US LNG export projects
    • FERC queue - order of export approvals by earliest possible FERC authorization date
    • Proposed US supply projects with earliest expected start dates on or before 2019
    • Proposed US supply projects with earliest expected start dates after 2019
  • Infrastructure
    • Flow change between 2013 and 2018 (mmcfd)
    • Southwest Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio supply by end market
    • Northeast Marcellus supply by end market
    • Northeast supply related basis outlook
    • Northeast market points basis outlook
    • Algonquin citygates and Transco Z6 NY monthly basis outlook
    • Southeast demand by supply region
    • Transco Z5 versus Tetco M3 annual basis outlook
    • Infrastructure: Image 9
    • Gulf Coast demand by supply area
    • Supply sources for Gulf Coast LNG export demand
    • Gulf Coast basis outlook
    • Mid-continent supply by end market
    • Permian supply by end market
    • Infrastructure: Image 15
    • Infrastructure: Image 16
    • Midwest basis outlook
    • Rockies supply by end market
    • California demand by supply area
    • Oregon and Washington demand by supply area
    • Southwest basis outlook
    • Pacific Northwest basis outlook
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