Commodity market report
| |
53 Pages

United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015


United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

The collapse in oil prices in the last six months has roiled energy markets, but the primary theme defining North American gas markets remains the same: wellhead breakevens are lower still, limiting long-term upward pressure on gas prices. 

What's included?

This report includes 8 file(s)

  • United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015 PDF - 1.45 MB 53 Pages, 2 Tables, 56 Figures
  • NAGS LTO Supply and Demand Balances H1 2015.xls XLS - 1021.00 KB
  • NAGS LTO Demand Breakout H1 2015.xls XLS - 1.49 MB
  • NAGS LTO Supply Breakout H1 2015.xls XLS - 835.50 KB
  • NAGS LTO LNG Breakout H1 2015.xls XLS - 799.50 KB
  • NAGS LTO NGV Breakout H1 2015.xls XLS - 665.00 KB
  • NAGS LTO Infrastructure H1 2015.xls XLS - 156.50 KB
  • NAGS LTO Price Outlook H1 2015.xls XLS - 788.50 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Oil price recovery
    • Influx of cheap gas supply
      • Mid-term Northeast pipeline build-out
      • Falling wellhead breakevens
      • Long-term Utica upside
    • Rapid and robust demand growth
      • Concentrated in the South
    • Delivering northern supply to southern markets
    • Price outlook and risks
  • Supply
    • Northeast
    • Utica
    • Associated Gas
    • Gulf Coast
      • Haynesville Shale
      • Eagle Ford Shale
    • Mid-Continent
      • Short-term outlook
      • Associated gas from liquids-rich shale plays will help offset declining production
      • Investments in midstream infrastructure are needed to prevent future constraints
    • Permian
    • Rocky Mountains
    • Gulf of Mexico
    • West Coast
    • US development outlook
  • Demand
    • GDP outlook
    • Gas demand overview: power and industrials lead domestic growth
    • Conversions boost long-term residential and commercial demand
    • Industrial gas demand to thrive as long-term low gas prices balance out temporary oil price plunge
    • Petrochemicals: Industry is thriving with nine ethylene crackers under construction
    • Fertilizers: US is still on track to become a net exporter
    • Methanol: Low oil price might delay Chinese demand in the short term
    • GTL: Heavily hit by low oil price, development will be minimal in the mid-term
    • NGV growth is delayed in the short-term but will bounce back by 2018
    • Gas demand for marine bunkering remains unchanged
    • Power remains the strongest domestic growth sector, supported by environmental policies
    • Power load: growth areas now threatened by low oil price environment
    • Coal retirements now reality
    • Major policy looms: EPA’s Clean Power Plan carbon regulation
    • Solar competitiveness already reality in select markets
    • Policy hits keep coming for coal but international markets show promise
  • Trade
    • Canada: WSCB seeks new markets as it is increasingly displaced in eastern Canada
      • Mexico: US gas continues south
      • LNG exports
        • Long-term competition
  • Infrastructure
    • Uncommitted and generic pipeline expansion outlook
    • Winter premium markets

In this report there are 58 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Oil and gas price outlook
    • New Northeast pipeline capacity
    • Haynesville (Louisiana side) breakevens (8% IRR)
    • NGL prices and US ethylene buildout
    • Demand growth (from 2014)
    • Executive summary: Image 6
    • Executive summary: Image 7
    • Price outlook and marginal plays
  • Supply
    • Northeast production forecast
    • Northeast production forecast
    • Utica Supply Outlook
    • US associated gas forecast with breakout by oil breakeven (WTI)
    • Associated gas from key tight oil plays
    • Wellhead gas production forecast by Anadarko Woodford sub-play
    • Wolfcamp production forecast
    • Bone Spring production forecast
    • US drilling forecast by target
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Growth in US gas demand by sector from 2014
    • Core heating demand and usage per customer
    • US cumulative industrial growth
    • US historical fertilizer consumption
    • US likely cumulative industrial projects by sector (vs. 2013)
    • Number of CNG/LNG vehicles and consumption forecast (Diesel Gallon Equivalent) in the US
    • US power sector gas demand with major sign posts
    • Southeast US power burns show strongest growth
    • Total load growth 2007-2014: central corridor leads the recovery
    • US coal retirements will exceed 65 GW from 2010-2020
  • Trade
    • Canadian imports and exports by supply source and region
    • Major Mexico and US crossborder pipeline capacity
    • North America LNG export infrastructure
    • Global gas price forecast
    • LNG production growth by region (from 2020)
    • LNG demand growth (from 2020) H2 2014 vs H1 2015
  • Infrastructure
    • Committed pipeline projects
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Northeast basis outlook
    • Infrastructure: Image 4
    • Infrastructure: Image 5
    • New York, Mid-Atlantic and New England seasonal basis
    • Infrastructure: Image 7
    • Infrastructure: Image 8
    • Southeast vs Northeast basis
    • Gulf Coast basis
    • Infrastructure: Image 11
    • Infrastructure: Image 12
    • Chicago Citygate vs. supply area basis
    • Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana demand by supply area
    • Infrastructure: Image 15
    • Mid-Continent and Permian basis
    • Mid-Continent supply by end market
    • Permian supply by end market
    • Rockies production by end market
    • Western basis
    • Pacific Northwest and California basis
    • Pacific Northwest and Northern California demand by supply area
    • Southern California demand by supply area
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.